Match Info
National League North - Round 12Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday
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 |
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Buxton |
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Chorley |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
2.45 |
3.7 |
2.38 |
|
 |
2.58 |
3.5 |
2.4 |
|
 |
2.52 |
3.65 |
2.52 |
|
 |
1.44 |
4.08 |
7.36 |
 Watch |
 |
2.58 |
3.52 |
2.44 |
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3 |
3.45 |
2.1 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.43 ↓
(3.05) |
3.65 ↑
(3.45) |
3.2 ↑
(2.14) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
- The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Buxton
41.3% | Draw
27.4% | Chorley
31.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Buxton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Buxton's performance.Chorley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chorley might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Buxton than the current prediction. (-11.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Buxton that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (+12.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chorley could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Buxton - Chorley Predictions
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Buxton (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 36', 1 - 0, Bardell M. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 2)
- 52', 1 - 1, Clarke W. ⚽,
- 81', 1 - 2, Pratt G. ⚽,
- 90+4', 2 - 2, Brennan L. ⚽,
- 90+8', 3 - 2, Ward G. ⚽,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Buxton won 2.Buxton is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).Chorley has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins โ 2). In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Buxton won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 1.2:1.4).Including home matches between the teams, Buxton won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1.4:1).
Last Results with these Odds
Chorley - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 43.11%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| English National League North | | | 18.04.25 | Buxton - Chorley | 1:0 | | 04.02.25 | Chorley - Buxton | 3:0 | | 06.04.24 | Buxton - Chorley | 3:1 | | 12.12.23 | Chorley - Buxton | 3:2 | | 25.02.23 | Chorley - Buxton | 2:2 | | 10.01.23 | Buxton - Chorley | 2:2 | | Club Friendly | | | 08.09.20 | Buxton - Chorley | 3:1 |
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