Match Info

National League North - Round 11

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Victory Park (Chorley)


	Chorley		Oxford City

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.5	5.25
	1.43	4.45	5.9
	1.44	4.57	6.57
	3.20	3.42	2.13	Watch
	1.42	4.45	6.59
	1.45	4.2	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.45)	4.27 ↑ (4.2)	5.32 ↓ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chorley
57.8%

Draw
23.4%

Oxford City
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

21.5%

16.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.3%

20.8%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chorley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Oxford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chorley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford City than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Chorley - Oxford City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Chorley (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Scott T. ⚽,
42', 0 - 2, Johnson D. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
57', 1 - 2, Ibbitson H. ⚽,
62', 1 - 3, Scott T. ⚽,
67', 2 - 3, Hewitt C. ⚽,
90', 3 - 3, Henley A. ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 22 in the zone Relegation).

Chorley has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Oxford City is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Chorley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Chorley is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Chorley won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Chorley won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chorley
English National League North
04.10.25	South Shields - Chorley	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
27.09.25	South Shields - Chorley	4:1 ✺
English National League North
20.09.25	Chorley - Macclesfield Town	3:2 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Congleton Town - Chorley	0:1 ✺
English National League North
06.09.25	Chorley - AFC Telford United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLWWW
- Oxford City
English National League North
04.10.25	Oxford City - Curzon Ashton	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Scarborough Athletic - Oxford City	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Buxton - Oxford City	2:1 ✺
02.09.25	Oxford City - Alfreton Town	5:0 ✺
30.08.25	Oxford City - Radcliffe	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
21.01.25	Chorley - Oxford City	0:0
31.08.24	Oxford City - Chorley	2:2
24.02.15	Chorley - Oxford City	1:1
16.08.14	Oxford City - Chorley	0:0

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