Match Info

SPAIN: Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 34

Date: 5 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Pedro Escartín (Guadalajara)


	CD Guadalajara		Mensajero

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.25	8
	1.25	5.25	9
	1.24	5.45	11.86
	1.24	5.08	10.8
	1.26	5.4	8.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.51)	5.29 ↑ (3.91)	9.61 ↑ (5.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CD Guadalajara
73.2%

Draw
17.3%

Mensajero
9.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.5%

23.3%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

15.9%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CD Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in CD Guadalajara's performance.

Mensajero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mensajero might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-31.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with CD Guadalajara that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mensajero than the current prediction. (+14.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mensajero could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

CD Guadalajara - Mensajero Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Marcos S. ⚽,
36', 2 - 0, Morcillo D. ⚽,
45', 2 - 1, de Salles Oliveira E. ⚽,
2nd Half (4 - 1)
52', 3 - 1, Morcillo D. ⚽,
55', 3 - 2, Martin Gonzalez B. ⚽,
62', 4 - 2, Marcos S. ⚽,
68', 5 - 2, Morcillo D. ⚽,
75', 6 - 2, Morcillo D. ⚽,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 12 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Mensajero is Relegated to

Recent matches Guadalajara is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Mensajero has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Mensajero could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Guadalajara is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Guadalajara won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Guadalajara won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
28.04.24	Getafe B - CD Guadalajara	2:0 ✺
20.04.24	CD Guadalajara - Villanovense	1:2 ✺
14.04.24	Navalcarnero - CD Guadalajara	3:1 ✺
07.04.24	CD Guadalajara - Numancia	1:0 ✺
31.03.24	Illescas - CD Guadalajara	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LLLWW
- CD Mensajero
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
21.04.24	San Sebastian Reyes - Mensajero	4:0 ✺
14.04.24	Badajoz - Mensajero	3:0 ✺
07.04.24	Mensajero - Getafe B	0:1 ✺
31.03.24	Villanovense - Mensajero	3:1 ✺
24.03.24	Mensajero - Navalcarnero	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
07.01.24	Mensajero - CD Guadalajara	4:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
31.01.16	Mensajero - CD Guadalajara	1:0
13.09.15	CD Guadalajara - Mensajero	1:0

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