Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 6

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Pedro Escartín (Guadalajara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	CD Guadalajara		Real Avilés

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.1	4.1
	1.78	3.2	4
	1.85	3.2	4.15
	1.99	3.45	3.99
	3.05	3.30	2.25	Watch
	1.85	3.22	4.36
	1.8	3.25	4.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.34)	3.25 ↑ (2.87)	3.89 ↑ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CD Guadalajara
46.7%

Draw
29.1%

Real Avilés
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

31.9%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

32%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CD Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in CD Guadalajara's performance.

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with CD Guadalajara that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+5%)

CD Guadalajara - Real Avilés Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Guadalajara (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zarco A. (G) 16. Cera 4. Ablanque J. 5. Gallardo D. 18. Martinez J. 14. Tavares R. 22. Samuel 21. Ramirez M. 10. Amigo D. 24. Caropitche S. M. 7. Neskes	1. Fernandez A. (G) 20. Campabadal E. 16. Gomez A. 5. Babin J. 26. Carracedo O. 7. Hernandez R. 8. Bautista K. 18. Gete A. 22. Isi Ros 11. Rubio R. 9. Santamaria A.
Substitutes
11. Alvarez U. 8. Calvo T. 9. Canizo A. 20. Diaz B. 19. Munoz P. 15. Rodriguez V. 6. Rojo P. 13. Vicente D. (G)	13. Almodovar N. (G) 21. Alvarez P. 17. Bari Q. 10. Cueto J. 3. Diaz V. 23. El Arbaoui Y. 12. Granero B. 2. Ortega G. 19. Poquet N. 4. Rodriguez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 🟨,
9', 0 - 1, Santamaria A. ⚽,
33', Gete A. 🟨,
43', 0 - 2, Santamaria A. (Pen),
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Samuel ↓, Calvo T. ↑,
46', Isi Ros ↓, Ortega G. ↑,
53', Fernandez A. 🟨,
54', 1 - 2, Neskes (Pen),
61', Ramirez M. ↓, Munoz P. ↑,
61', Neskes ↓, Alvarez U. ↑,
62', Campabadal E. 🟨,
64', 2 - 2, Munoz P. ⚽,
68', Santamaria A. ↓, Granero B. ↑,
73', Amigo D. ↓, Canizo A. ↑,
76', Granero B. 🟨,
80', Calvo T. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
81', Rubio R. ↓, Cueto J. ↑,
81', Gete A. ↓, Bari Q. ↑,
86', 2 - 3, Bari Q. ⚽,
88', Hernandez R. ↓, Viti ↑,
89', Tavares R. 🟨,
90', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+11', 3 - 3, Diaz B. ⚽,
90+16', 🟨,
90+17', 3 - 4, Cueto J. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 10).

Guadalajara is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Real Avilés has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Guadalajara may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Guadalajara is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Real Avilés - the odds 3.13 are the expected chance of winning is 29.18%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.09.25	Ferrol - CD Guadalajara	0:0 ✺
19.09.25	Ponferradina - CD Guadalajara	1:3 ✺
14.09.25	CD Guadalajara - Unionistas de Salamanca	2:0 ✺
07.09.25	Celta de Vigo B - CD Guadalajara	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	CD Guadalajara - Tenerife	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 TWWWL
- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
28.09.25	Real Avilés - Athletic Bilbao B	3:2 ✺
21.09.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Real Avilés	3:2 ✺
14.09.25	Real Avilés - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Lugo - Real Avilés	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Real Avilés - Ponferradina	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLWTL

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