Match Info

CONCACAF Central American Cup - Play-in - Final

Date: 20 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Yankel Rosenthal (San Pedro Sula) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	23:00	Disney+
Brazil	23:00	Disney+
Canada	22:00	OneSoccer
Chile	23:00	Disney+
Colombia	21:00	Disney+
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	21:00	Disney+
Uruguay	23:00	Disney+
Usa	22:00	Concacaf GO, Paramount+
Venezuela	22:00	Disney+


	CD Marathón		Alianza San Miguel

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.25	2.65
	1.75	3.35	3.95	Watch
	2.02	3.36	3.59
	1.88	3.6	3.87	Watch
	1.84	3.3	3.5
	1.78	3.38	3.99	Watch
	1.66	3.35	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.73)	3.37 ↓ (3.71)	3.79 ↓ (4.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CD Marathón
48.7%

Draw
27.2%

Alianza San Miguel
24.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53.7%

25%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

24.6%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CD Marathón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Alianza San Miguel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CD Marathón than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for CD Marathón, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza San Miguel than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

CD Marathón - Alianza San Miguel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rougier J. (G) 16. Agurcia S. 4. Rivera J. 2. Figueroa H. (C) 14. Arriaga Chavez J. A. 10. Ramirez D. 8. Sorto Caballero T. A. 9. Farioli B. 22. Argueta C. 11. Messiniti N. 72. Moreno Y.	13. Gonzalez M. (G) 29. Hernandez E. 14. Parra W. 23. Monteagudo J. 15. Flores W. 10. Menjivar L. 6. Orellana N. (C) 8. Osorio H. 20. Henriquez A. 24. Aguirre M. 7. Mier M.
Substitutes
19. Aguilera J. 3. Bodden K. 20. Bueso J. 7. Castillo I. 77. Elis A. 13. Fernandez J. 31. Juarez H. (G) 12. Mejia Y. 43. Montoya L. 29. Perez C. 21. Ramos O. 34. Vargas N.	27. Bigueur D. 17. Castillo F. 31. Franco D. (G) 39. Garcia K. 41. Guardado Ardon E. R. 9. Gustavo Souza 1. Joya M. (G) 11. Portillo J. 30. Rivas Linares E. A. 26. Rivera N. 56. Romero D. 45. Tobar L.
Coaches
Rudman S. G.	Vazquez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Osorio H. ⚽, Mier M. (A),
15', 1 - 1, Messiniti N. ⚽, Rivera J. (A),
22', 2 - 1, Ramirez D. ⚽, Argueta C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Henriquez A. ↓, Castillo F. ↑,
46', Moreno Y. 🟨,
54', Rivera J. 🟨,
58', Flores W. ↓, Guardado Ardon E. R. ↑,
64', Aguirre M. ↓, Rivera N. ↑,
64', Mier M. 🟨,
74', Mier M. ↓, Gustavo Souza ↑,
74', Menjivar L. ↓, Rivas Linares E. A. ↑,
74', Ramirez D. ↓, Bueso J. ↑,
75', Argueta C. ↓, Perez C. ↑,
75', Messiniti N. ↓, Elis A. ↑,
77', Hernandez E. 🟨,
78', Arriaga Chavez J. A. 🟨,
82', Arriaga Chavez J. A. ↓, Aguilera J. ↑,
84', Farioli B. ↓, Vargas N. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Alianza may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Marathón for this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Marathón has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:1 (averaging 0.5:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Marathón against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:1 goals (averaging 0.5:0.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

CD Marathón - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 53.67%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Marathón
Honduras Liga Nacional
15.10.26	CD Marathón - Olancho	2:1 ✺
10.10.26	Lobos UPNFM - CD Marathón	0:0 ✺
20.09.26	Juticalpa - CD Marathón	3:2 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
17.09.26	Alajuelense - CD Marathón	3:1 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
13.09.26	CD Marathón - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTLLW
- Alianza San Miguel
El Salvador Primera Division
17.10.26	Cacahuatique - Alianza San Miguel	0:0 ✺
11.10.26	Alianza San Miguel - Inter Santa Tecla	2:2 ✺
08.10.26	CD FAS - Alianza San Miguel	2:1 ✺
03.10.26	Alianza San Miguel - Luis Ángel Firpo	2:2 ✺
30.09.26	Alianza San Miguel - Platense Municipal Zacatecoluca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF Central American Cup
19.08.26	CD Marathón - Alianza San Miguel	0:1
27.08.24	CD Marathón - Alianza San Miguel	1:0

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