Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Play Offs - Final

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Yankel Rosenthal (San Pedro Sula)


	CD Marathón		Motagua

	1	X	2
	2.23	2.73	3.23
	2.34	2.94	3.3	Watch
	2.26	2.82	3.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.24)	2.83 ↓ (3.6)	3.27 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CD Marathón
40%

Draw
32.2%

Motagua
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

25.8%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

24.8%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CD Marathón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Motagua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CD Marathón than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

CD Marathón - Motagua Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rougier J. (G) 14. Arriaga Chavez J. A. 3. Bodden K. 79. Castillo R. 9. Farioli B. 5. Martinez Hernandez F. E. 27. Perez C. 10. Ramirez D. (C) 21. Ramos O. 4. Rivera J. 30. Sacaza C.	22. Ortiz L. (G) 19. De Olivera R. 5. Discua O. 27. Macias J. 35. Melendez C. (C) 8. Melendez D. 17. Portillo J. C. 23. Reyes A. 34. Sacaza G. 7. Serrano J. 4. Vega L.
Substitutes
19. Aguilera J. 60. Arriaga L. 7. Castillo I. 26. Elvir S. 2. Figueroa H. 31. Juarez H. (G) 11. Messiniti N. 22. Nunez M. 23. Samudio C. (G) 41. Sevilla C. 8. Sorto Caballero T. A. 17. Vega Orellana A. N.	14. Barrios A. 2. Cacho P. 10. Gomez R. 15. Hernandez A. 29. John Kleber 25. Licona M. (G) 77. Mejia C. 53. Oliva D. 56. Palma C. 26. Santamaria L. 12. Santos M. 6. Zapata R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Sacaza C. ↓, Vega Orellana A. N. ↑,
49', Vega Orellana A. N. ↓, Castillo I. ↑,
58', Melendez C. 🟨,
70', De Olivera R. ↓, John Kleber ↑,
74', Ramirez D. 🟨,
77', 0 - 1, John Kleber ⚽,
79', Martinez Hernandez F. E. ↓, Messiniti N. ↑,
79', Ramos O. ↓, Elvir S. ↑,
84', Reyes A. ↓, Gomez R. ↑,
84', Melendez D. ↓, Santos M. ↑,
87', Ramirez D. ↓, Aguilera J. ↑,
90+1', Serrano J. ↓, Santamaria L. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marathón won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Marathón may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Marathón won 6 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 26:29. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Marathón won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.3:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marathon	8	5	2	1	14:6	8	17
4	Motagua	8	4	1	3	11:8	3	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Marathón
Honduras Liga Nacional
18.05.26	Real España - CD Marathón	1:1 ✺
15.05.26	CD Marathón - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	1:0 ✺
06.05.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - CD Marathón	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	CD Marathón - Real España	1:0 ✺
30.04.26	CD Marathón - Choloma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWLWL
- CD Motagua
Honduras Liga Nacional
18.05.26	Motagua - Génesis PN	2:1 ✺
12.05.26	Olancho - Motagua	0:2 ✺
09.05.26	Motagua - Olancho	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	Génesis PN - Motagua	1:1 ✺
30.04.26	Lobos UPNFM - Motagua	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
09.04.26	CD Marathón - Motagua	1:0
15.02.26	Motagua - CD Marathón	1:1
25.10.25	CD Marathón - Motagua	1:0
17.08.25	Motagua - CD Marathón	3:3
29.03.25	CD Marathón - Motagua	1:1
30.01.25	Motagua - CD Marathón	2:2
06.11.24	CD Marathón - Motagua	2:1

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