Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 11

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Rei Pelé (Maceió)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	CS Alagoano		Caxias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.93	3	3.7
	1.95	3.05	3.7	Watch
	2	3.05	3.97
				Watch
	2	2.9	3.7
	1.92	3.13	3.88	Watch
	1.77	3.16	3.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.82)	3.05 ↓ (3.3)	3.8 ↓ (4.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CS Alagoano
46.7%

Draw
29.6%

Caxias
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

27.5%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.8%

27.1%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CS Alagoano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Caxias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CS Alagoano than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

CS Alagoano - Caxias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Felix (G) 3. Betao 5. Camacho (C) 6. Enzo 2. Felipe Albuquerque 7. Gabriel Vieira 11. Guilherme Cachoeira 8. Gustavo Nicola 4. Islan 10. Luciano Naninho 9. Tiago Marques	1. Thiago Coelho (G) 33. Alan 25. Calyson 39. Eduardo Melo 11. Iago 5. Lorran 4. Lucas Cunha 6. Marcelo 27. Pedro Cuiaba 2. Thiago Ennes 10. Tomas Bastos (C)
Coaches
Higo	Junior Rocha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 3)
8', 0 - 1, Iago ⚽,
10', Camacho 🟨,
11', 0 - 2, Eduardo Melo ⚽,
16', Lucas Cunha 🟨,
24', 1 - 2, Camacho ⚽,
35', Gabriel Vieira ↓, Baianinho ↑,
40', 🟨,
40', 1 - 3, Pedro Cuiaba ⚽,
45+3', Thiago Coelho 🟨,
45+3', 2 - 3, Tiago Marques ⚽,
45+5', Tomas Bastos 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Pedro Cuiaba 🟨,
60', Iago ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
60', Pedro Cuiaba ↓, Guilherme Mantuan ↑,
64', Lorran ↓, Alisson ↑,
64', Eduardo Melo ↓, Gustavo Nescau ↑,
66', Guilherme Cachoeira ↓, Cavalleri M. ↑,
66', Felipe Albuquerque ↓, Diogo Batista ↑,
70', Calyson ↓, Gabriel Lima ↑,
78', Gustavo Nescau 🟨,
78', Tiago Marques ↓, Igor Bahia ↑,
78', Camacho ↓, Gustavinho ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

CSA is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Caxias has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

CSA could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, CSA won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Including home match between the teams, CSA won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Alagoano
Brazilian Serie C
28.06.25	Guarani - CS Alagoano	1:0 ✺
16.06.25	CS Alagoano - Floresta	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.06.25	América RN - CS Alagoano	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
02.06.25	São Bernardo - CS Alagoano	1:3 ✺
24.05.25	CS Alagoano - Confiança	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LWWWT
- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
29.06.25	Caxias - Ituano	2:1 ✺
14.06.25	Botafogo PB - Caxias	1:2 ✺
31.05.25	Caxias - Londrina	4:2 ✺
24.05.25	Itabaiana - Caxias	2:1 ✺
18.05.25	São Bernardo - Caxias	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
24.08.24	CS Alagoano - Caxias	2:1

CS Alagoano - Caxias: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide