Match Info

Date: 12 March 2022, Saturday


	Caen		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.2	2.15	Watch
	3.5	3.2	2.1
	3.6	3.05	2.14	Watch
	3.35	3.1	2.12
	3.74	3.21	2.2
	3.6	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.52	3.4	2.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↑ (3.26)	3.19 ↓ (3.4)	2.13 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caen
26.5%

Draw
29.4%

Toulouse
44.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

28%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.9%

21%

57%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+12.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toulouse could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Caen - Toulouse Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).

Caen has the most likely position - 13 (11.17%), has project points - 47, has currently - 32, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Toulouse has the most likely position - 1 (86.04%), has project points - 79, has currently - 57, has not chance of relegated, has a very good chance of promoted (97%), has a good chance of win league (86%).

This event has quality 40, importance 34, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Caen won 0.

Recent matches Caen is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Toulouse in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Toulouse will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Caen won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 16-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Caen won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SM Caen
French Ligue 2
05.03.22	Dijon - Caen	1:0 ✺
26.02.22	Caen - Bastia	2:1 ✺
19.02.22	Pau - Caen	1:0 ✺
12.02.22	Caen - Nîmes	4:0 ✺
05.02.22	Nancy - Caen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWLWT
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 2
07.03.22	Toulouse - Dunkerque	2:0 ✺
28.02.22	Grenoble - Toulouse	0:2 ✺
21.02.22	Toulouse - Le Havre	4:0 ✺
12.02.22	Valenciennes - Toulouse	1:3 ✺
05.02.22	Toulouse - Dijon	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
27.09.21	Toulouse - Caen	2:3
08.05.21	Toulouse - Caen	3:0
11.01.21	Caen - Toulouse	2:2
French Ligue 1
24.02.19	Toulouse - Caen	1:1
18.12.18	Caen - Toulouse	2:1
25.04.18	Caen - Toulouse	0:0
09.12.17	Toulouse - Caen	2:0

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