Match Info

Cymru South - Round 11

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday


	Caerau Ely		Trefelin

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.55	2.68
	2.56	3.55	2.24
	2.23	3.95	2.72	Watch
	2.2	3.4	2.6
	2.3	3.76	2.72
	2.16	3.66	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.27)	3.65 ↓ (3.93)	2.6 ↓ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caerau Ely
40%

Draw
25%

Trefelin
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

23.6%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

22.1%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caerau Ely has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Trefelin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trefelin than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	0%	69.2%

Caerau Ely - Trefelin Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Caerau will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Trefelin will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Trefelin: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Trefelin will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Ware L. ⚽,
45+4', 0 - 2, Pascoe J. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', Parker T. 🟨,
85', 1 - 2, Redhead O. ⚽,
90+1', 🟥,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caerau won 2.

Caerau is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Trefelin is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Trefelin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Caerau won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Caerau won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 2.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21:18	3	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
09.01.26	Newport City - Caerau Ely	1:1 ✺
02.01.26	Caerau Ely - Cardiff Draconians	2:1 ✺
26.12.25	Trefelin - Caerau Ely	3:0 ✺
20.12.25	Caerau Ely - Aberystwyth Town	1:0 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
13.12.25	Caerau Ely - Llandudno	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TWLWW
- Trefelin BGC
Welsh Cymru South
09.01.26	Trefelin - Trethomas Bluebirds	3:1 ✺
30.12.25	Afan Lido - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
26.12.25	Trefelin - Caerau Ely	3:0 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
29.11.25	Trefelin - Cardiff Draconians	4:3 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru South
14.11.25	Trefelin - Carmarthen Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
26.12.25	Trefelin - Caerau Ely	3:0
Welsh League Cup
18.07.25	Caerau Ely - Trefelin	3:4
Welsh Cymru South
12.11.24	Caerau Ely - Trefelin	2:0
26.07.24	Trefelin - Caerau Ely	1:0
Welsh League Cup
20.07.24	Caerau Ely - Trefelin	2:1
Welsh Cymru South
05.01.24	Trefelin - Caerau Ely	3:1
17.11.23	Caerau Ely - Trefelin	2:0

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