Match Info

Cymru South - Round 19

Date: 9 January 2026, Friday


	Newport City		Caerau Ely

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.4	2.62
	2.37	3.58	2.72	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.63
	2.35	3.32	2.59
	2.33	3.2	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.49)	3.32 ↓ (3.65)	2.65 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport City
38.7%

Draw
27.2%

Caerau Ely
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

25.4%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

24.9%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Caerau Ely has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport City than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Newport City - Caerau Ely Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Caerau (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Caerau (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, McLaggon K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', 1 - 1, Griffiths D. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 and 4).

Recent performances by Newport City have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Caerau is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Newport City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Newport City has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Newport City won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 2.7:2).

Including home match between the teams, Newport City won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21:18	3	16
12	Newport City	7	2	2	3	10:6	4	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
27.12.25	Newport City - Cwmbran Celtic	2:2 ✺
10.12.25	Newport City - Cardiff Draconians	2:1 ✺
05.12.25	Newport City - Pontypridd United	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Treowen Stars - Newport City	2:0 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
23.11.25	Newport City - Blaenavon Blues	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TWTLW
- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
02.01.26	Caerau Ely - Cardiff Draconians	2:1 ✺
26.12.25	Trefelin - Caerau Ely	3:0 ✺
20.12.25	Caerau Ely - Aberystwyth Town	1:0 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
13.12.25	Caerau Ely - Llandudno	2:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
28.11.25	Carmarthen Town - Caerau Ely	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
21.10.25	Caerau Ely - Newport City	4:3
20.12.24	Newport City - Caerau Ely	3:1
16.08.24	Caerau Ely - Newport City	1:2

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