Match Info

Cymru South - Round 17

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday


	Trefelin		Caerau Ely

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.6	3
	2.01	3.94	3.15	Watch
	1.95	3.5	3
	1.95	3.62	3.2
	1.96	3.6	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.75)	3.65 ↓ (3.8)	3.09 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trefelin
45.9%

Draw
24.8%

Caerau Ely
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

23.7%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trefelin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Trefelin's form might have worsened.

Caerau Ely has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Trefelin - Caerau Ely Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Caerau (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Caerau (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Jones J. ⚽,
36', 2 - 0, Caramella-Gerrard L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', 3 - 0, Jones J. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Trefelin won 3.

In recent matches, Caerau has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Trefelin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Trefelin could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Trefelin won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Trefelin won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Trefelin BGC
Welsh FA Cup
29.11.25	Trefelin - Cardiff Draconians	4:3 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru South
14.11.25	Trefelin - Carmarthen Town	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Aberystwyth Town - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Trefelin - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
10.10.25	Cambrian United - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.6 WWWWW
- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
20.12.25	Caerau Ely - Aberystwyth Town	1:0 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
13.12.25	Caerau Ely - Llandudno	2:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
28.11.25	Carmarthen Town - Caerau Ely	1:1 ✺
07.11.25	Caerau Ely - Cambrian United	2:3 ✺
31.10.25	Afan Lido - Caerau Ely	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh League Cup
18.07.25	Caerau Ely - Trefelin	3:4
Welsh Cymru South
12.11.24	Caerau Ely - Trefelin	2:0
26.07.24	Trefelin - Caerau Ely	1:0
Welsh League Cup
20.07.24	Caerau Ely - Trefelin	2:1
Welsh Cymru South
05.01.24	Trefelin - Caerau Ely	3:1
17.11.23	Caerau Ely - Trefelin	2:0

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