Match Info

Cymru South - Round 15

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Trefelin		Cardiff Draconians

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.35	8.1
	1.27	5.9	9.25
	1.3	5.2	9.26	Watch
	1.25	5	9.5
	1.21	5.6	10.4
	1.54	4	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (3.24)	5.18 ↑ (3.74)	8.5 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trefelin
71.2%

Draw
17.9%

Cardiff Draconians
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

24.8%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

23.5%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trefelin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+42.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Trefelin's performance.

Cardiff Draconians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-35.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cardiff Draconians might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trefelin than the current prediction. (-44%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Trefelin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff Draconians than the current prediction. (+38.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cardiff Draconians could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Trefelin - Cardiff Draconians Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Horgan-Evans D. ⚽,
26', 1 - 1, Cawley S. ⚽,
33', 2 - 1, Caramella-Gerrard L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
70', 3 - 1, Brock T. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier and 7).

Trefelin has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Cardiff Draconians's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Trefelin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Trefelin is considered a favorite.

We predict that Trefelin will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Trefelin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3.

Including home match between the teams, Trefelin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Cardiff Draconians	7	2	2	3	9:12	-3	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Trefelin BGC
Welsh Cymru South
28.02.26	Llantwit Major - Trefelin	0:1 ✺
20.02.26	Trefelin - Ynyshir Albions	2:0 ✺
17.02.26	Trefelin - Baglan Dragons	3:0 ✺
13.02.26	Carmarthen Town - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
23.01.26	Ammanford - Trefelin	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWWW
- Cardiff Draconians
Welsh Cymru South
21.02.26	Treowen Stars - Cardiff Draconians	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Cardiff Draconians - Baglan Dragons	3:1 ✺
24.01.26	Aberystwyth Town - Cardiff Draconians	3:2 ✺
16.01.26	Cwmbran Celtic - Cardiff Draconians	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Cardiff Draconians - Cambrian United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh FA Cup
29.11.25	Trefelin - Cardiff Draconians	4:3 penalties

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