Match Info

League Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 10 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: The Oval (Caernarfon)


	Caernarfon Town		Holywell Town

	1	X	2
	1.24	5.75	8
	1.24	5.9	8.4
	1.23	5.96	7.8
	1.36	4.96	6.99	Watch
	1.29	5.59	8.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.33)	5.63 ↑ (4.93)	7.97 ↑ (7.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caernarfon Town
72.2%

Draw
16.3%

Holywell Town
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.4%

18.7%

11.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caernarfon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Holywell Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caernarfon Town than the current prediction. (-16.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Caernarfon Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holywell Town than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Caernarfon Town - Holywell Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Caernarfon (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Caernarfon Town will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Caernarfon (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 2)
60', 0 - 1, Breese J. ⚽,
75', 0 - 2, Murtas F. ⚽,
82', 1 - 2, Lock J. ⚽,
90+2', 2 - 2, Gosset D. ⚽,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Jones M. (Pen),
1, Hewitt I. (Pen),
2, Lock J. (Pen),
2, Lindfield C. (Pen),
3, Gosset D. (Pen),
3, Sconce J. (Pen),
4, Owen M. (Pen),
4, ap Gareth I. (Pen),
5, Ellis O. (Pen),
5, Bibby T. (Pen),
6, (Pen),
6, (Pen),

Preview

Both teams have recently enjoyed a winning streak.

Holywell Town may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Caernarfon is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Caernarfon will win today's game, with odds of 1.3.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caernarfon Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
07.09.25	Caernarfon Town - Barry Town United	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Haverfordwest County - Caernarfon Town	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Caernarfon Town - Bala Town	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Flint Town United - Caernarfon Town	2:5 ✺
16.08.25	Caernarfon Town - Llanelli	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WTWWW
- Holywell Town
Welsh Cymru North
06.09.25	Caersws - Holywell Town	1:3 ✺
25.08.25	Holywell Town - Ruthin Town	5:1 ✺
22.08.25	Holyhead Hotspur - Holywell Town	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Holywell Town - Guilsfield	4:1 ✺
08.08.25	Denbigh Town - Holywell Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWWW

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