Match Info

WALES: CYMRU PREMIER - ROUND 8

Date: 23 September 2023, Saturday

Location: The Oval (Caernarfon)

Referee: Jones H. (Wal)


	Caernarfon Town		Pontypridd United

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.5	2.7	Watch
	2.41	3.45	2.84
	2.35	3.2	2.75
	2.33	3.48	2.74
	2.37	3.45	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.23)	3.42 ↑ (3.34)	2.75 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caernarfon Town
39.2%

Draw
27.1%

Pontypridd United
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

27.8%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

28.6%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caernarfon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Pontypridd United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caernarfon Town than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Caernarfon Town - Pontypridd United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Webb L. (G) 7. Bradley S. 2. Cartwright I. 19. Clarke Z. 9. Davies A. 6. Donohue D. 20. Lloyd L. 17. Maher B. 21. Mooney P. 10. Thomas D. (C) 14. Williams M.	31. Ratcliffe G. (G) 2. Cummings L. 4. Davies K. 17. Hunt J. 30. Hutson C. 12. Maertins J. 5. Margetson B. 22. Pritchard O. 14. Rees K. 8. Shephard C. 16. Wright J. (C)
Substitutes
3. Faux J. 8. Gosset D. 34. Griffith C. 31. Pritchard T. 4. Williams G. 18. Wynne B.	35. Karadogan J. 10. Lewis K. 1. Morris A. (G) 3. Vaughan E. 7. Williams D. 19. Young O.
Coaches
Davies R.	Stokes A.

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 8 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: )).

Recent matches Caernarfon is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Pontypridd is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Caernarfon could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Caernarfon won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Caernarfon won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caernarfon Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
16.09.23	Pen-y-Bont - Caernarfon Town	3:2 ✺
09.09.23	Aberystwyth Town - Caernarfon Town	2:4 ✺
01.09.23	Caernarfon Town - Gap Connahs Quay	0:4 ✺
29.08.23	Caernarfon Town - Bala Town	1:1 ✺
26.08.23	Haverfordwest County - Caernarfon Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWLTT
- Pontypridd United
Welsh League Cup
19.09.23	Aberystwyth Town - Pontypridd United	0:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
16.09.23	Pontypridd United - Bala Town	0:0 ✺
08.09.23	Cardiff Metropolitan - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
02.09.23	Pontypridd United - Barry Town United	1:0 ✺
29.08.23	Aberystwyth Town - Pontypridd United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
15.04.23	Caernarfon Town - Pontypridd United	1:2
11.03.23	Pontypridd United - Caernarfon Town	1:0
01.10.22	Pontypridd United - Caernarfon Town	3:1
20.08.22	Caernarfon Town - Pontypridd United	2:0

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