Match Info

Cymru Premier - Championship Group - Round 23

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Bryntirion Park (Bridgend)

Referee: Jones A. (Wal)


	Pen-y-Bont		Caernarfon Town

	1	X	2
	2.22	3.4	2.88
	2.44	3.5	2.86
	2.39	3.45	2.82	Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.8
	2.32	3.18	2.83
	2.42	3.2	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.03)	3.34 ↑ (3.28)	2.83 ↓ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pen-y-Bont
39.5%

Draw
27.8%

Caernarfon Town
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

27.9%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

28%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pen-y-Bont has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pen-y-Bont's form might have worsened.

Caernarfon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Caernarfon Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pen-y-Bont, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caernarfon Town than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Caernarfon Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Pen y Bont - Caernarfon Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Pen-y-Bont will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Caernarfon will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pen-y-Bont (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Caernarfon (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Pen-y-Bont (votes: 1 - 50%). Caernarfon (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Armstrong L. (G) 16. Borge B. 15. Clay J. 11. Daley N. 6. Davies M. 29. Green C. 3. Owen K. (C) 14. Phillips I. 8. Pritchard O. 4. Williams N. 7. Wood N.	1. Roberts C. (G) 19. Bradley S. 9. Davies A. 8. Gosset D. 24. Harrison K. 3. Jones M. 23. Lock J. 7. Mendes P. 5. Mooney P. 27. Sears R. (C) 14. Young B.
Substitutes
21. Baker A. 51. Clarke C. (G) 54. Coe P. 18. Jones J. 24. Matthews A. (G) 17. Warlow O. 5. Woodiwiss J.	21. Evans C. 6. Lewis I. 2. Owen M. 25. Roberts O. 15. Smith D. 10. Thomas D. 13. Thomas H. (G)
Coaches
Griffiths R.	Davies R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Sears R. 🟨,
27', Green C. 🟨,
37', Lock J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Green C. ↓, Baker A. ↑,
46', Sears R. ↓, Owen M. ↑,
62', Lock J. ↓, Owen R. ↑,
67', Young B. 🟨,
67', Young B. ↓, Lewis I. ↑,
73', Owen K. ↓, Warlow O. ↑,
75', Warlow O. 🟨,
79', Davies A. ↓, Evans C. ↑,
88', Phillips I. ↓, Jones J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pen-y-Bont won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Pen-y-Bont has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pen-y-Bont won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 44:25. (average 2.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Pen-y-Bont won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:10. (average 2.3:1).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Penybont: 7.42% Caernarfon: 2.4%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22:10	12	27
5	Caernarfon	12	7	2	3	35:14	21	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
13.01.26	Pen-y-Bont - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:1 ✺
01.01.26	Llanelli - Pen-y-Bont	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Pen-y-Bont - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:1 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
13.12.25	Pen-y-Bont - Flint Town United	0:1 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
09.12.25	Pen-y-Bont - Barry Town United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TWTLT
- Caernarfon Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
13.01.26	Caernarfon Town - Gap Connahs Quay	2:2 ✺
31.12.25	Bala Town - Caernarfon Town	0:1 ✺
27.12.25	Caernarfon Town - Colwyn Bay	1:2 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
13.12.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Caernarfon Town	2:4 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
05.12.25	Caernarfon Town - Flint Town United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
25.10.25	Pen-y-Bont - Caernarfon Town	0:2
20.09.25	Caernarfon Town - Pen-y-Bont	1:2
13.04.25	Pen-y-Bont - Caernarfon Town	3:1
22.02.25	Caernarfon Town - Pen-y-Bont	3:2
02.11.24	Caernarfon Town - Pen-y-Bont	1:5
07.09.24	Pen-y-Bont - Caernarfon Town	2:0
18.05.24	Caernarfon Town - Pen-y-Bont	3:1

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