Match Info

Serie A - Round 18

Date: 2 January 2026, Friday

Location: Unipol Domus (Cagliari)

Referee: Abisso R. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 2, SuperSport Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab


	Cagliari		Milan

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.9	1.62	Watch
	6	4	1.55
	5.9	3.7	1.62	Watch
	6.12	4.01	1.62	Watch
	5.5	3.75	1.57
	6.05	3.99	1.67
	6	3.8	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.87 ↑ (5.65)	3.88 ↓ (4.1)	1.61 ↑ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cagliari
16.2%

Draw
24.6%

Milan
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.8%

23.1%

60.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.7%

22.9%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cagliari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.8%	14.8%	78.4%

Cagliari - Milan Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +1.5 - Cagliari (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Milan will win (68 of 85 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.5% – 88.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Milan will win (25 of 25 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Cagliari (votes: 1 - 3.8%). Milan (votes: 25 - 96.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Caprile E. (G) 28. Zappa G. (C) 15. Rodriguez J. 6. Luperto S. 2. Palestra M. 8. Adopo M. 16. Prati M. 4. Mazzitelli L. 33. Obert A. 94. Esposito Se. 9. Kilicsoy S.	16. Maignan M. (C) 23. Tomori F. 5. De Winter K. 33. Bartesaghi D. 56. Saelemaekers A. 19. Fofana Y. 14. Modric L. 12. Rabiot A. 2. Estupinan P. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 10. Leao R.
Substitutes
29. Borrelli G. 21. Cavuoti N. 24. Ciocci G. (G) 14. Deiola A. 18. Di Pardo A. 10. Gaetano G. 3. Idrissi R. 27. Liteta J. 77. Luvumbo Z. 26. Mina Y. 30. Pavoletti L. 23. Pintus N. 31. Radunovic B. (G) 20. Rog M. 37. Trepy Y.	24. Athekame Z. 38. Castiello A. 9. Fullkrug N. 46. Gabbia M. 30. Jashari A. 27. Odogu D. 31. Pavlovic S. 11. Pulisic C. 4. Ricci S. 1. Terracciano P. (G) 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Pisacane F.	Allegri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', 0 - 1, Leao R. ⚽, Rabiot A. (A),
61', Obert A. ↓, Idrissi R. ↑,
61', Prati M. ↓, Borrelli G. ↑,
66', Esposito Se. ↓, Gaetano G. ↑,
69', Leao R. ↓, Fullkrug N. ↑,
69', Fofana Y. ↓, Ricci S. ↑,
79', Loftus-Cheek R. ↓, Pulisic C. ↑,
79', Estupinan P. ↓, Gabbia M. ↑,
83', Mazzitelli L. ↓, Cavuoti N. ↑,
83', Kilicsoy S. ↓, Pavoletti L. ↑,
83', Idrissi R. 🟨,
90+1', Saelemaekers A. 🟨,
90+1', Palestra M. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cagliari won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Milan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Milan is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Cagliari: Belotti A. (Knee Injury) Felici M. (Knee Injury) Folorunsho M. (Knee Injury) Pedro J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Gimenez S. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Cagliari: Mazzitelli L. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cagliari won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 16:44. (average 0.8:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cagliari won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:18. (average 1:1.8).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AC Milan: 7.71% Cagliari: 0.38%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	5:2	3	12
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10:4	6	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie A
27.12.25	Torino - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Cagliari - Pisa	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Atalanta - Cagliari	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Cagliari - Roma	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
03.12.25	Napoli - Cagliari	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 WTLWL
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
28.12.25	Milan - Verona	3:0 ✺
Italian Super Cup
18.12.25	Napoli - Milan	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.12.25	Milan - Sassuolo	2:2 ✺
08.12.25	Torino - Milan	2:3 ✺
Coppa Italia
04.12.25	Lazio - Milan	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
11.01.25	Milan - Cagliari	1:1
09.11.24	Cagliari - Milan	3:3
11.05.24	Milan - Cagliari	5:1
Coppa Italia
02.01.24	Milan - Cagliari	4:1
Italian Serie A
27.09.23	Cagliari - Milan	1:3
19.03.22	Cagliari - Milan	0:1
29.08.21	Milan - Cagliari	4:1

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