Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 4

Date: 8 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Heroes de San Ramon (Cajamarca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Max
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Cajamarca		ADT Tarma

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.40	5.00	Watch
	1.70	3.30	4.20
	1.83	3.45	4.00	Watch
	1.79	3.71	4.45
	1.81	3.69	4.14	Watch
	1.70	3.30	5.30
	1.72	3.30	5.27	Watch
	1.72	3.35	4.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (2.24)	3.44 ↑ (3.22)	4.61 ↑ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cajamarca
52.9%

Draw
27%

ADT Tarma
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

29%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

28.2%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cajamarca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cajamarca's performance.

ADT Tarma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and ADT Tarma might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cajamarca than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cajamarca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that ADT Tarma could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Cajamarca - ADT Tarma Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Barrios I. (C) 17. Garro L. 3. Ganoza M. 6. Cavagna F. 13. Caro D. 16. Figuera A. 22. Camacho D. 8. Dioses D. 35. Paredes G. 19. Munoz A. 10. Lliuya M.	30. Valencia J. (G) 6. Ojeda A. 99. Pereyra J. 44. Benincasa H. 59. Nunez O. 26. Garcilazo J. 16. Perez L. (C) 15. Alvino J. 22. Rodriguez A. 80. Canela Torres J. J. 32. Bauman J.
Substitutes
88. Arce L. 11. Arroyo A. 21. Bettocchi R. (G) 9. de Jesus M. 18. Galvez S. 5. Huerto J. 7. Nunez J.	25. Garcia S. 27. Hidalgo A. 31. Navarro J. 24. Peralta S. 9. Rengifo H. 2. Reyes J. 3. Rugel L. 33. Solis C. (G) 28. Soto J.
Coaches
Paulucci C.	Usucar F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Rodriguez A. ↓, Rengifo H. ↑,
23', Paredes G. 🟨,
26', Munoz A. 🟨,
28', Usucar F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Dioses D. ↓, Arroyo A. ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Canela Torres J. J. ⚽, Garcilazo J. (A),
72', Garro L. ↓, Arce L. ↑,
72', Cavagna F. ↓, Huerto J. ↑,
76', Rengifo H. ↓, Peralta S. ↑,
78', Figuera A. 🟨,
80', Caro D. ↓, de Jesus M. ↑,
85', Canela Torres J. J. ↓, Rugel L. ↑,
85', Bauman J. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
87', Usucar F. 🟨,
88', Nunez O. 🟨,
90+2', Peralta S. 🟨,
90+9', Pereyra J. 🟥,
90+9', Barrios I. 🟥,
90+16', Valencia J. 🟨,
90+18', 1 - 1, Lliuya M. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cajamarca won 0.

Recent performances by Cajamarca have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

ADT's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cajamarca will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Cajamarca: Campos A. (Face Injury) Duarte B. (Red Card)

There will not play in ADT: Narvaez J. (Red Card)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Cajamarca won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cajamarca won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	AD Tarma	11	1	3	7	7:21	-14	6
18	Cajamarca	10	0	2	8	11:24	-13	2

Last Results with these Odds

Cajamarca - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.67%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

ADT Tarma - the odds 3.18 are the expected chance of winning is 29.35%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UTC De Cajamarca
Peruvian Liga 1
01.08.26	Cusco - Cajamarca	4:1 ✺
26.07.26	Cajamarca - Moquegua	0:0 ✺
18.07.26	Atlético Grau - Cajamarca	3:1 ✺
Peruvian Copa de la Liga
12.07.26	Cajamarca - ADA Jaén	4:1 ✺
26.06.26	Cajamarca - Cajamarca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LTLWW
- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
02.08.26	ADT Tarma - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:1 ✺
25.07.26	Sport Boys - ADT Tarma	2:0 ✺
18.07.26	ADT Tarma - Universitario de Deportes	1:2 ✺
Peruvian Copa de la Liga
10.07.26	Cienciano - ADT Tarma	2:3 ✺
26.06.26	Sport Huancayo - ADT Tarma	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
22.02.26	ADT Tarma - Cajamarca	2:2
16.09.25	ADT Tarma - Cajamarca	3:1
20.04.25	Cajamarca - ADT Tarma	0:1
20.08.24	Cajamarca - ADT Tarma	1:1
16.03.24	ADT Tarma - Cajamarca	2:1
28.08.23	ADT Tarma - Cajamarca	0:0
08.04.23	Cajamarca - ADT Tarma	1:0

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