Match Info

Cymru South - Round 22

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday


	Cambrian United		Caerau Ely

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.9	4.35
	1.63	4.02	4.45
	1.65	4.09	4.54	Watch
	1.6	3.6	4.5
	1.59	3.86	4.68
	1.6	4	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.49)	3.91 ↓ (3.94)	4.46 ↓ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cambrian United
56.4%

Draw
23.2%

Caerau Ely
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.9%

22.6%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.6%

21.6%

16.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cambrian United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Caerau Ely has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cambrian United than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cambrian United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Cambrian United - Caerau Ely Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Eason L. ⚽,
42', 2 - 0, Bonthron A. ⚽,
45+1', 3 - 0, Jones K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Evans A. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

Cambrian United has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Caerau has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Cambrian United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cambrian United is the team to beat.

We predict that Cambrian United will win today's game, with odds of 1.58.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cambrian United won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:6. (average 2.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cambrian United won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 2.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21:18	3	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cambrian United
Welsh Cymru South
23.01.26	Cambrian United - Newport City	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Cardiff Draconians - Cambrian United	0:2 ✺
01.01.26	Cambrian United - Pontypridd United	1:0 ✺
26.12.25	Ynyshir Albions - Cambrian United	1:3 ✺
13.12.25	Cambrian United - Carmarthen Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWWW
- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
07.02.26	Caerau Ely - Ammanford	3:1 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
31.01.26	Bangor 1876 - Caerau Ely	3:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
23.01.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Caerau Ely	1:5 ✺
16.01.26	Caerau Ely - Trefelin	1:2 ✺
09.01.26	Newport City - Caerau Ely	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
07.11.25	Caerau Ely - Cambrian United	2:3
12.04.25	Caerau Ely - Cambrian United	0:2
25.10.24	Cambrian United - Caerau Ely	2:2
16.03.24	Cambrian United - Caerau Ely	2:2
03.09.19	Cambrian United - Caerau Ely	3:0

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