Match Info

FA Cup - 1/128-finals

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Abbey Stadium (Cambridge)


	Cambridge United		Chester

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	8
	1.00	14.75	25.00	Watch
	1.34	4.8	8.7	Watch
	1.37	5	7.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.3)	7.33 ↑ (4.75)	12.38 ↑ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cambridge United
78.5%

Draw
13.5%

Chester
8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.1%

18.9%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.4%

18.4%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cambridge United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cambridge United's performance.

Chester has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambridge United than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cambridge United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chester than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Cambridge United - Chester Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Eastwood J. (G) 2. Bennett L. 5. Morrison M. (C) 6. Watts K. 3. Purrington B. 11. Kaikai S. 4. Ball D. 8. Smith K. 7. Brophy J. 14. Knight B. 20. Kouassi K.	13. Murray-Jones G. (G) 5. Leak T. 27. Arthur F. 19. Carson H. 3. Woodthorpe N. 10. Murray I. 8. Bainbridge J. 4. Weeks D. (C) 11. Mottley-Henry D. 7. Peers T. 18. Jones P.
Substitutes
22. Bradshaw Z. 26. Gibbons J. 38. Hoddle G. 25. Hughes B. (G) 23. Jobe M. 10. Kachunga E. 15. Mayor A. 27. McConnell G. 17. Mpanzu P.	21. Barlow G. (G) 6. Jones J. 2. Kelly-Evans D. 16. Leigh L. 25. Roberts K. 22. Shorrock J. 17. Woods C. 9. Zanzala O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
9', Woodthorpe N. 🟨,
10', 1 - 0, Kouassi K. ⚽, Brophy J. (A),
19', Mottley-Henry D. ↓, Kelly-Evans D. ↑,
30', Watts K. 🟨,
35', 2 - 0, Kouassi K. ⚽, Brophy J. (A),
39', Bainbridge J. 🟨,
45+3', 3 - 0, Brophy J. ⚽, Kouassi K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Arthur F. ↓, Jones J. ↑,
48', Purrington B. 🟨,
63', Jones P. ↓, Zanzala O. ↑,
73', Ball D. ↓, Mpanzu P. ↑,
73', Kouassi K. ↓, Kachunga E. ↑,
73', Smith K. ↓, Hoddle G. ↑,
73', Knight B. ↓, McConnell G. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Cambridge is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cambridge won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Cambridge won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cambridge United
English League Two
25.10.25	Notts County - Cambridge United	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
21.10.25	Barnet - Cambridge United	3:2 ✺
English League Two
18.10.25	Cambridge United - Bromley	2:1 ✺
11.10.25	Shrewsbury Town - Cambridge United	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.10.25	Cambridge United - Luton Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLWLW
- Chester City
English National League North
25.10.25	Chester - Bedford Town	1:2 ✺
21.10.25	Alfreton Town - Chester	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	Chester - Kidderminster Harriers	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.10.25	Chester - Morecambe	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Morecambe - Chester	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League
21.04.14	Cambridge United - Chester	0:1
12.10.13	Chester - Cambridge United	0:0

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