Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo (Cancún)

Referee: Ortega O. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Cancún		Tapatío

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.68	3.60	4.00
	1.7	3.7	4.1	Watch
	1.69	4.02	4.69
	1.69	3.99	4.5	Watch
	1.66	3.9	4.55
	1.69	4.33	4.43	Watch
	1.7	3.75	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.56)	3.9 ↓ (4.16)	4.34 ↓ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cancún
54.9%

Draw
23.8%

Tapatío
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.7%

22.4%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

22.1%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cancún has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Tapatío has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cancún, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Cancún - Tapatío Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Arce E. (G) 3. Hernandez J. 4. Reyes R. 33. Ruiz L. 2. Alvarez A. 8. Melendre F. 5. Chavez A. 10. Uscanga P. (C) 14. Campos K. 11. Trejo C. 12. Rodriguez J.	45. Garcia E. (G) 195. Zamarripa D. 54. Nuno R. 55. Esparza S. 48. Jimenez L. 63. Cendejas M. 60. Ledesma L. 50. Medina C. 44. Zamora S. (C) 69. Villaseca D. 49. Moragrega V.
Substitutes
20. Arredondo A. 6. Cortes J. 9. Gigena T. 15. Guillen D. 16. Lomeli D. 17. Lopez L. 18. Montiel Herrera E. A. (G) 19. Preciado G. 139. Salaya De La Cruz C. 24. Vela C.	65. Corona C. 42. Delgadillo D. 64. Latorre D. 254. Lewis J. 61. Leyva Cortes A. A. (G) 216. Martinez I. 234. Ponce D. 70. Torres L.
Coaches
Bravo M.	Melendez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Jimenez L. 🟨,
17', Cendejas M. 🟨,
25', Reyes R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Hernandez J. 🟨,
59', Melendre F. ↓, Preciado G. ↑,
59', Ruiz L. 🟨,
65', Jimenez L. ↓, Delgadillo D. ↑,
65', Medina C. ↓, Latorre D. ↑,
65', Esparza S. ↓, Corona C. ↑,
69', Uscanga P. ↓, Gigena T. ↑,
69', Reyes R. ↓, Guillen D. ↑,
75', 1 - 0, Gigena T. ⚽,
76', Gigena T. 🟨,
77', Chavez A. ↓, Cortes J. ↑,
77', Campos K. ↓, Lopez L. ↑,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 8th in the Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cancún won 3.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Cancún may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Cancún is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Cancún has recorded 6 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:9 (averaging 0.8:0.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cancún against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 7:3 goals (averaging 1:0.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Cancun	11	5	2	4	19:15	4	17
10	Tapatio	10	4	2	4	17:15	2	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cancún FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
26.09.26	Tlaxcala - Cancún	4:1 ✺
19.09.26	Cancún - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:0 ✺
15.09.26	Dorados - Cancún	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Correcaminos UAT - Cancún	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Cancún - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWTTW
- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.09.26	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	4:0 ✺
12.09.26	Dorados - Tapatío	3:1 ✺
06.09.26	Tapatío - Leones Negros UdeG	1:3 ✺
27.08.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tapatío	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Tapatío - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
26.04.26	Cancún - Tapatío	1:0
23.04.26	Tapatío - Cancún	1:1
06.03.26	Tapatío - Cancún	1:2
27.09.25	Cancún - Tapatío	1:0
05.04.25	Cancún - Tapatío	1:2
20.10.24	Tapatío - Cancún	2:0
26.03.24	Cancún - Tapatío	1:1

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