Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo (Cancún)

Referee: Ortiz Leon J. C. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Cancún		Correcaminos UAT

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.33	4.95	7.5	Watch
	1.43	4.7	6.95
	1.35	4.83	7.17	Watch
	1.29	5.46	8.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 (1.35)	4.99 ↑ (4.83)	7.64 ↑ (7.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cancún
69.1%

Draw
18.7%

Correcaminos UAT
12.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.1%

19%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71%

18.2%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cancún has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Correcaminos UAT has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Correcaminos UAT than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Cancún - Correcaminos UAT Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Andrade C. (G) 7. Alonzo J. 14. Campos K. 9. Diaz J. 6. Ochoa I. 17. Padilla E. 4. Reyes R. 22. Soria E. 11. Trejo C. 10. Uscanga P. (C) 30. Zabala L.	35. Chavez L. (G) 88. Aguilar A. 104. Arce R. 5. Capeluto J. 20. Estopier J. 10. Hernandez E. (C) 28. Lopez M. 15. Mengual A. 3. Pereyra J. 91. Sarmiento M. 19. Trevino S.
Substitutes
26. Arce E. (G) 5. Chavez A. 15. Hernandez M. 8. Melendre F. 18. Montiel S. 20. Rosales A. 139. Salaya De La Cruz C. 28. Solano A. 24. Unjanque J.	86. Barron D. 1. Castellanos R. (G) 11. Espinosa Y. 17. Garcia J. 83. Hernandez A. 93. Hernandez L. 2. Pineda I. 85. Rubli G. 30. Villareal A.
Coaches
Bravo M.	Urbina J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
17', Alonzo J. 🟥,
29', 1 - 0, Soria E. ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 0, Reyes R. ⚽, Uscanga P. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
48', Aguilar A. 🟨,
50', Lopez M. 🟨,
52', Aguilar A. ↓, Espinosa Y. ↑,
57', 3 - 0, Diaz J. ⚽, Campos K. (A),
59', Sarmiento M. 🟨,
64', Soria E. ↓, Rosales A. ↑,
69', Campos K. ↓, Unjanque J. ↑,
69', Ochoa I. ↓, Chavez A. ↑,
74', Trevino S. ↓, Villareal A. ↑,
74', Estopier J. ↓, Rubli G. ↑,
77', 4 - 0, Trejo C. ⚽, Unjanque J. (A),
79', Mengual A. 🟥,
80', 5 - 0, Diaz J. (Pen),
83', Padilla E. ↓, Montiel S. ↑,
83', Trejo C. ↓, Melendre F. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 14).

Cancún is Qualified for Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cancún won 3.

Cancún is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Correcaminos is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Cancún is the obvious favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Cancún won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cancún won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cancún FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.10.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Cancún	1:2 ✺
10.10.25	Cancún - Irapuato	0:0 ✺
03.10.25	Atlético La Paz - Cancún	2:4 ✺
27.09.25	Cancún - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Jaiba Brava - Cancún	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTWWL
- Correcaminos UAT
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.10.25	Correcaminos UAT - Dorados	1:0 ✺
03.10.25	Irapuato - Correcaminos UAT	4:1 ✺
26.09.25	Correcaminos UAT - Venados	3:6 ✺
19.09.25	Tapatío - Correcaminos UAT	2:2 ✺
12.09.25	Correcaminos UAT - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.01.25	Cancún - Correcaminos UAT	2:1
16.10.24	Correcaminos UAT - Cancún	1:3
31.01.24	Correcaminos UAT - Cancún	3:1
05.08.23	Cancún - Correcaminos UAT	2:1
25.01.23	Cancún - Correcaminos UAT	0:1
11.08.22	Correcaminos UAT - Cancún	0:0
01.03.22	Correcaminos UAT - Cancún	0:1

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