Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez (Tepatitlán)

Referee: Montes Santos J. O. (Mex)


	Tepatitlán de Morelos		Cancún

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2	3.35	3.4
	1.77	3.93	4.57
	1.78	3.62	4.32	Watch
	1.99	3.44	3.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.03)	3.59 ↑ (3.49)	3.94 ↑ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tepatitlán de Morelos
49.9%

Draw
26.2%

Cancún
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

26.6%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

27%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tepatitlán de Morelos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Cancún has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Tepatitlán de Morelos - Cancún Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gutierrez G. (C) 22. Aguilar D. 13. Aguilar M. 19. Ballesteros O. 24. Cardona U. 5. Chavez A. 2. Ocon L. 11. Reyes J. 6. Ruiz A. 20. Samano L. 23. Venegas J.	1. Andrade C. (G) 7. Alonzo J. 5. Chavez A. 9. Diaz J. 23. Galindo B. (C) 3. Hernandez J. 6. Ochoa I. 17. Padilla E. 4. Reyes R. 12. Rodriguez J. 11. Trejo C.
Substitutes
28. Cerda J. 26. Dominguez I. 27. Garcia D. 18. Gomez J. 17. Lorona L. 9. Machado J. 21. Moreno Villegas J. A. 29. Quiroz A. (G) 25. Soto A. 16. Zamora A.	26. Arce E. (G) 14. Campos K. 8. Melendre F. 18. Montiel S. 20. Rosales A. 28. Solano A. 22. Soria E. 24. Unjanque J. 10. Uscanga P.
Coaches
Real H.	Bravo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Samano L. ⚽, Ballesteros O. (A),
23', Cardona U. 🟨,
25', Galindo B. 🟨,
31', 1 - 1, Reyes R. ⚽, Diaz J. (A),
38', Samano L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Reyes J. ↓, Lorona L. ↑,
46', Rodriguez J. ↓, Unjanque J. ↑,
46', Cardona U. ↓, Cerda J. ↑,
55', Aguilar M. 🟨,
56', Reyes R. 🟨,
63', 1 - 2, Unjanque J. ⚽, Diaz J. (A),
70', Ballesteros O. ↓, Machado J. ↑,
70', Ocon L. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
71', Padilla E. ↓, Montiel S. ↑,
73', Alonzo J. 🟨,
74', Lorona L. 🟥,
76', Venegas J. 🟨,
81', Trejo C. ↓, Campos K. ↑,
81', Chavez A. ↓, Uscanga P. ↑,
85', Samano L. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
90+4', Hernandez J. ↓, Soria E. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 2.

In recent matches, Tepatitlán has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cancún is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tepatitlán could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 12:19. (average 1.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Tepatitlán won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
10.10.25	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0 ✺
03.10.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético Morelia	3:2 ✺
26.09.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:3 ✺
19.09.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Irapuato - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LWTLT
- Cancún FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
10.10.25	Cancún - Irapuato	0:0 ✺
03.10.25	Atlético La Paz - Cancún	2:4 ✺
27.09.25	Cancún - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Jaiba Brava - Cancún	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Cancún - Venados	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.01.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Cancún	1:1
03.08.24	Cancún - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:0
19.03.24	Cancún - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:0
30.08.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Cancún	3:0
21.03.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Cancún	1:0
11.10.22	Cancún - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:2
21.04.22	Cancún - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:2 penalties

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