The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Tepatitlán de Morelos 20.6%
Draw 21.4%
Cancún 58%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
30.3%
23.7%
46%
Our Initial ML Estimation
29.2%
22.9%
47.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tepatitlán de Morelos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tepatitlán de Morelos's form might have worsened.
Cancún has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cancún's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (+8.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tepatitlán de Morelos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (-10.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cancún, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Tepatitlán de Morelos - Cancún Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Estrada A. (G) 24. Valencia V. 36. Sanchez J. 13. Martinez N. 38. Cardenas A. 11. Olvera G. 22. Sanguinetti F. 5. Villalpando D. (C) 37. Egurrola L. 39. Cruz J. 40. Tamay A.
1. Arce E. (G) 3. Hernandez J. 4. Reyes R. 33. Ruiz L. 8. Melendre F. 24. Vela C. 6. Cortes J. 2. Alvarez A. 14. Campos K. 12. Rodriguez J. (C) 9. Gigena T.
Substitutes
16. Aguilar H. 33. Alcantar E. 31. Casas B. 3. Contreras I. 28. Lopez M. 44. Modica F. 14. Rios Orbe J. L. 35. Rodriguez D. (G) 10. Vazquez H. 8. Vazquez L.
20. Arredondo A. 15. Guillen D. 16. Lomeli D. 17. Lopez L. 18. Montiel Herrera E. A. (G) 135. Perez G. 19. Preciado G. 139. Salaya De La Cruz C. 10. Uscanga P.
Coaches
Olvera G.
Bravo M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Gigena T. ⚽, Melendre F. (A),
27', 0 - 2, Rodriguez J. ⚽, Campos K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Cardenas A. ↓, Contreras I. ↑,
57', Reyes R. 🟨,
59', Sanguinetti F. 🟨,
59', Cruz J. 🟨,
59', Cruz J. 🟨,
64', 0 - 3, Rodriguez J. ⚽, Melendre F. (A),
68', Vela C. ↓, Lopez L. ↑,
68', Gigena T. ↓, Preciado G. ↑,
74', Tamay A. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
74', Sanchez J. ↓, Alcantar E. ↑,
74', Egurrola L. ↓, Rios Orbe J. L. ↑,
78', Hernandez J. ↓, Lomeli D. ↑,
78', Sanguinetti F. ↓, Modica F. ↑,
80', Olvera G. 🟨,
82', 0 - 4, Rodriguez J. ⚽, Melendre F. (A),
84', Melendre F. 🟨,
84', Melendre F. ↓, Guillen D. ↑,
84', Reyes R. ↓, Perez G. ↑,
89', Preciado G. 🟨,
Preview
Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 16th and 7th in the Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 0.
Tepatitlán is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Performances by Cancún have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Cancún could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
In this matchup, Cancún is considered the favorite to take the win.
In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Tepatitlán has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:23 (averaging 1.2:1.8 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Tepatitlán against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 7:6 goals (averaging 1.2:1 per game).
Mexico
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Estrada A. (G) 
Sanguinetti F. 
Melendre F. 
Modica F. 
Preciado G. 
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