Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 10 October 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo (Cancún)

Referee: Miranda E. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Cancún		Irapuato

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.98	3.35	3.45	Watch
	2.1	3.47	3.5
	1.83	3.62	3.83	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.89)	3.49 ↑ (3.45)	3.54 ↓ (3.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cancún
46.9%

Draw
26.8%

Irapuato
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

27.1%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

27.5%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cancún has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Irapuato has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Irapuato than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Cancún - Irapuato Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Andrade C. (G) 7. Alonzo J. 9. Diaz J. 23. Galindo B. (C) 3. Hernandez J. 6. Ochoa I. 17. Padilla E. 4. Reyes R. 12. Rodriguez J. 11. Trejo C. 10. Uscanga P.	20. Hernandez H. (C) 3. Alvarado V. 6. del Angel E. 2. Doldan J. 5. Elbis 31. Pena R. 9. Pucheta J. 10. Rangel J. 34. Ruiz J. 25. Sanchez B. 16. Sandoval R.
Substitutes
26. Arce E. (G) 14. Campos K. 5. Chavez A. 15. Hernandez M. 8. Melendre F. 18. Montiel S. 20. Rosales A. 28. Solano A. 22. Soria E. 24. Unjanque J.	14. de Alba J. 33. Delgado J. 28. Gamboa J. 1. Magana G. (G) 13. Martinez R. 22. Munoz G. 4. Rivera M. 24. Rodriguez A. 26. Santillan E. 23. Zamudio J.
Coaches
Bravo M.	Alcantar D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Uscanga P. 🟨,
23', Rangel J. 🟨,
45', Rangel J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Pucheta J. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
64', Uscanga P. ↓, Campos K. ↑,
70', Hernandez J. ↓, Melendre F. ↑,
70', Rodriguez J. ↓, Unjanque J. ↑,
80', del Angel E. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
80', Sanchez B. ↓, Gamboa J. ↑,
84', Reyes R. 🟨,
88', Sandoval R. ↓, Santillan E. ↑,
88', Doldan J. ↓, Zamudio J. ↑,
90+2', Rodriguez A. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Cancún is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cancún FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.10.25	Atlético La Paz - Cancún	2:4 ✺
27.09.25	Cancún - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Jaiba Brava - Cancún	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Cancún - Venados	1:0 ✺
05.09.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Cancún	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWLWT
- Irapuato
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.10.25	Irapuato - Correcaminos UAT	4:1 ✺
28.09.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Irapuato	0:2 ✺
14.09.25	Irapuato - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Dorados - Irapuato	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Irapuato - Jaiba Brava	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWTWT

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