Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 8 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Referee: Ortiz J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Peru	Disney+
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN 2 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports
World	DirecTV Sports, Disney+


	Caracas		Cienciano

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.3
	2.2	3	3.5	Watch
	2.2	3.09	3.68	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.15	3.11	3.76	Watch
	2.2	3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.01)	3.1 ↓ (3.35)	3.52 ↓ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Network on TV: beIN SPORTS 4

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Current Win Probability

Caracas
43.2%

Draw
30.2%

Cienciano
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

27.9%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

26.8%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caracas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Cienciano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caracas than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caracas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Caracas - Cienciano Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Caracas will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Cienciano will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Benitez F. (G) 72. Rito E. 2. La Mantia F. 19. Mago L. 13. Yendis J. 15. Heraldez L. 21. Rodriguez V. (C) 22. Figueroa A. 10. Covea M. 17. Reinoso L. 14. Echenique E.	24. Bolado J. (G) 7. Estrada J. 2. Ortiz D. 4. Amondarain M. 3. Gomez A. 5. Arias Fierro S. D. 9. Romagnoli J. 14. Torrejon C. (C) 20. Benites Vargas L. E. 25. Gentile G. 21. Garces C.
Substitutes
33. Correa W. 27. Edet B. 31. Hernandez J. 24. Jimenez N. 34. Martinez Aponte C. A. 32. Morigi M. 3. Rivillo D. 4. Rodriguez B. 29. Rondon J. 7. Tegues D. 23. Vegas J. (G) 5. Vegas M.	19. Ascues A. 29. Barrios I. (G) 28. Cavero S. 30. Da Silva B. 6. Galeano L. 8. Gonzalez A. 11. La Torre D. 22. Neira C. 17. Noronha O. 26. Palomino R. 70. Valoyes J.
Coaches
Aristeguieta F.	Diaz C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Reinoso L. ⚽, Heraldez L. (A),
31', Romagnoli J. 🟨,
34', Reinoso L. 🟨,
34', Garces C. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Garces C. ⚽, Benites Vargas L. E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Figueroa A. ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,
49', Heraldez L. 🟨,
50', La Mantia F. 🟨,
64', Gentile G. ↓, La Torre D. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Garces C. ⚽,
71', Reinoso L. ↓, Tegues D. ↑,
72', Heraldez L. ↓, Correa W. ↑,
74', Benites Vargas L. E. ↓, Neira C. ↑,
82', Amondarain M. 🟨,
85', Mago L. 🟨,
87', Torrejon C. ↓, Ascues A. ↑,
87', Romagnoli J. ↓, Valoyes J. ↑,
88', Rito E. ↓, Jimenez N. ↑,
90', Covea M. 🟥,
90+1', Rodriguez V. ↓, Rondon J. ↑,
90+8', Barrios I. 🟨,
90+9', 2 - 2, Rondon J. ⚽,
90+10', Jimenez N. 🟨,
90+11', Ortiz D. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Caracas is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cienciano is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Caracas could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Caracas will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caracas FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
05.04.25	Caracas - Carabobo	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Deportes Iquique - Caracas	1:2 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
27.03.25	Yaracuyanos - Caracas	3:3 ✺
14.03.25	Caracas - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Portuguesa Acarígua - Caracas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LWTTW
- Cienciano
Peruvian Liga 1
05.04.25	Atlético Grau - Cienciano	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Cienciano - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
23.03.25	Los Chankas - Cienciano	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Cienciano - Comerciantes Unidos	3:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.25	ADT Tarma - Cienciano	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 TTTWW

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