Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cienciano		Comerciantes Unidos

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.7	4.75	Watch
	1.63	3.7	4.2
	1.62	4.05	4.8	Watch
	1.63	4.05	5.07
	1.61	4.15	4.98	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.33
	1.63	3.9	4.91	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.34)	3.86 ↓ (4.9)	4.72 ↓ (8.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Cienciano
56.2%

Draw
24.1%

Comerciantes Unidos
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.8%

19.1%

11.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.6%

18.4%

10.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cienciano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cienciano's form might have worsened.

Comerciantes Unidos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Comerciantes Unidos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (+16.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cienciano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comerciantes Unidos than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Comerciantes Unidos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Cienciano - Comerciantes Unidos Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Cienciano will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Cienciano (1.92) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

EH +2 - Comerciantes Unidos (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Comerciantes Unidos (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Cienciano (votes: 1 - 25%). Comerciantes Unidos (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Falcon G. (G) 26. Aguilar R. 4. Amondarain M. 27. Yovera A. 25. Salazar R. 39. Caparo H. 88. Barreto G. 16. Martinich M. 17. Sandoval R. 10. Hohberg A. (C) 19. Succar M.	17. Cordova M. (G) 16. F. Rojas 40. Alcedo F. 30. Guzman P. 6. Rodriguez J. 15. Cossio A. 50. Olivares J. 4. Arias A. 18. Rodriguez A. 25. Vilca R. 9. Sen M. (C)
Substitutes
11. Bandiera N. 14. Cavero S. 31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 21. Garces C. 18. La Torre D. 13. Nunez C. 29. Robles A. 37. Rojas A. 7. Souza Espana C.	7. Carranza M. 99. Charun J. (G) 5. Correa Flores C. A. 11. Herrera J. 19. Lino D. 20. Parodi J. 13. Perez Azambuya E. M. 29. Saavedra C. 14. Salinas T.
Coaches
Melgarejo H.	Biaggio C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Sandoval R. 🟨,
27', Hohberg A. 🟨,
36', Rodriguez A. ↓, Salinas T. ↑,
42', Alcedo F. 🟨,
45+1', F. Rojas 🟨,
45+8', Salinas T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Olivares J. ↓, Perez Azambuya E. M. ↑,
66', Vilca R. 🟨,
68', Succar M. ↓, Garces C. ↑,
68', Sandoval R. ↓, Souza Espana C. ↑,
68', Barreto G. ↓, Rojas A. ↑,
68', Martinich M. ↓, Bandiera N. ↑,
71', Vilca R. ↓, Saavedra C. ↑,
78', Arias A. ↓, Correa Flores C. A. ↑,
81', Saavedra C. 🟨,
86', Salazar R. ↓, La Torre D. ↑,
90+1', Amondarain M. 🟥,
90+3', Saavedra C. ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
90+7', La Torre D. 🟨,
90+9', Perez Azambuya E. M. 🟨,
90+11', 1 - 0, Bandiera N. ⚽,
90+12', Bandiera N. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cienciano won 3.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Cienciano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cienciano is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Cienciano: Aguirre G. (Red Card) Arias Fierro S. D. (Lower Back Injury)

There are questionable in Cienciano: Becerra K. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Cienciano won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:7. (average 2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cienciano won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2.7:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Cienciano	11	3	2	6	14:18	-4	11
14	Comerciantes Unidos	11	2	4	5	18:19	-1	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cienciano
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Cienciano - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
26.04.26	Cajamarca - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
23.04.26	Los Chankas - Cienciano	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Cienciano - Moquegua	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	Cienciano - Academia Puerto Cabello	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WTLWW
- Comerciantes Unidos
Peruvian Liga 1
25.04.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Sporting Cristal	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Atlético	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Juan Pablo II College - Comerciantes Unidos	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Sport Huancayo - Comerciantes Unidos	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.1 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
08.08.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Cienciano	1:1
09.03.25	Cienciano - Comerciantes Unidos	3:2
13.07.24	Comerciantes Unidos - Cienciano	1:2
27.01.24	Cienciano - Comerciantes Unidos	1:0
Peruvian Liga 2
15.09.19	Comerciantes Unidos - Cienciano	2:1
02.06.19	Cienciano - Comerciantes Unidos	4:1

Cienciano - Comerciantes Unidos: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide