Match Info

League One - Round 11

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff)

Referee: Corlett M. (Eng)


	Cardiff City		Leyton Orient

	1	X	2
	1.61	4	4.5	Watch
	1.66	4	4.5
	1.68	3.95	4.45	Watch
	1.66	3.96	5.26
	2.31	2.82	3.56	Watch
	1.71	3.98	4.31	Watch
	1.6	4	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.66)	3.82 ↓ (3.95)	4.47 ↓ (4.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff City
54.1%

Draw
24.8%

Leyton Orient
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

23.5%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

22.7%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Leyton Orient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leyton Orient than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.5%	11.8%	11.8%

Cardiff City - Leyton Orient Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Cardiff will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Leyton Orient will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cardiff: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Cardiff (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Trott N. (G) 44. Kpakio R. 4. Osho G. 48. Lawlor D. 3. Bagan J. 47. Robinson C. 27. Colwill J. 10. Colwill R. (C) 6. Wintle R. 39. Davies I. 16. Willock C.	1. Simkin T. (G) 5. Happe D. 19. Beckles O. (C) 18. Edmonds-Green R. 25. Wellens C. 15. Bakinson T. 8. El Mizouni I. 28. Clare S. 3. Adaramola T. 10. Connolly A. 32. Ballard D.
Substitutes
12. Chambers C. 2. Fish W. 8. Kellyman O. 22. Salech Y. 55. Tankiewicz R. 14. Turnbull D. 41. Turner M. (G)	22. Abdulai A. 33. Cahill K. (G) 27. Jaiyesimi D. 17. Koroma J. 11. Mitchell D. 21. Moorhouse J. 4. Simpson J.
Coaches
Barry-Murphy B.	Wellens R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Robinson C. ⚽, Willock C. (A),
29', 1 - 1, Connolly A. ⚽,
30', Kpakio R. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
52', 2 - 1, Lawlor D. ⚽, Wintle R. (A),
54', 2 - 2, El Mizouni I. ⚽, Connolly A. (A),
57', Clare S. 🟨,
57', Willock C. 🟨,
61', 2 - 3, Ballard D. ⚽,
65', Colwill J. ↓, Salech Y. ↑,
65', Wintle R. ↓, Turnbull D. ↑,
65', Davies I. ↓, Kellyman O. ↑,
69', 3 - 3, Salech Y. ⚽, Colwill R. (A),
71', 4 - 3, Robinson C. ⚽, Kpakio R. (A),
76', Edmonds-Green R. ↓, Abdulai A. ↑,
76', Adaramola T. ↓, Mitchell D. ↑,
78', Connolly A. 🟨,
80', Ballard D. ↓, Koroma J. ↑,
85', Bakinson T. ↓, Moorhouse J. ↑,
85', Wellens C. ↓, Jaiyesimi D. ↑,
87', Robinson C. ↓, Fish W. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 17).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Cardiff may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cardiff is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Cardiff: King E. (Knee Injury) Tanner O. (Injury)

There will not play in Leyton Orient: Archibald T. (Knee Injury) Graham J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cardiff: Alnwick J. (Inactive) Ng P. (Injury) Osho G. (Knee Injury) Robertson A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Leyton Orient: Craig M. (Knock) Obiero Z. (Knee Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff City
English League One
30.09.25	Cardiff City - Burton Albion	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Wigan Athletic - Cardiff City	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Burnley - Cardiff City	1:2 ✺
English League One
20.09.25	Cardiff City - Bradford City	1:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
16.09.25	Exeter City - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 LWWLW
- Leyton Orient
English League One
27.09.25	Leyton Orient - Stevenage Borough	2:3 ✺
20.09.25	Reading - Leyton Orient	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Leyton Orient - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Port Vale - Leyton Orient	2:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	Peterborough United - Leyton Orient	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLTWW

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