Match Info

EFL Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Webb D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	Paramount+


	Burnley		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.6	3.8	Watch
	1.95	3.55	3.95	Watch
	2	3.6	3.94
	2.06	3.31	3.55	Watch
	1.92	3.73	4.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.55)	3.56 ↓ (4.36)	3.88 ↓ (5.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
48.7%

Draw
26.8%

Cardiff City
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

21.6%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.7%

21.2%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Burnley's form might have worsened.

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cardiff City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Burnley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cardiff City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	7.7%	38.5%

Burnley - Cardiff City Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Burnley will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Cardiff will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burnley: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Cardiff (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Cardiff (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Cardiff (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Weiss M. (G) 6. Tuanzebe A. 4. Worrall J. (C) 12. Humphreys B. 22. Sonne O. 8. Ugochukwu L. 28. Mejbri H. 23. Lucas Pires 10. Edwards M. 27. Broja A. 19. Flemming Z.	13. Trott N. (G) 38. Ng P. 12. Chambers C. (C) 2. Fish W. 3. Bagan J. 6. Wintle R. 27. Colwill J. 45. Ashford C. 10. Colwill R. 39. Davies I. 47. Robinson C.
Substitutes
34. Banel J. 35. Barnes A. 41. Brierley G. 43. Campbell M. 47. Clark E. 32. Hladky V. (G) 54. Pimlott O. 45. Pouani B. 31. Tresor Ndayishimiye M.	49. Giles L. 8. Kellyman O. 28. Mafico D. 29. Nyakuhwa T. 4. Osho G. 22. Salech Y. 14. Turnbull D. 41. Turner M. (G) 16. Willock C.
Coaches
Parker S.	Barry-Murphy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
23', Ugochukwu L. 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Colwill J. ⚽, Chambers C. (A),
34', Edwards M. 🟨,
35', 0 - 2, Robinson C. ⚽, Colwill R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 1 - 2, Flemming Z. ⚽, Edwards M. (A),
61', Davies I. ↓, Willock C. ↑,
67', Wintle R. 🟨,
68', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Banel J. ↑,
77', Robinson C. ↓, Salech Y. ↑,
77', Colwill R. ↓, Kellyman O. ↑,
77', Colwill J. ↓, Turnbull D. ↑,
78', Edwards M. ↓, Tresor Ndayishimiye M. ↑,
78', Broja A. ↓, Barnes A. ↑,
87', Flemming Z. ↓, Clark E. ↑,
90', Ashford C. ↓, Nyakuhwa T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 4.

Burnley has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cardiff is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cardiff may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Burnley has had a series of home games.

In this match, Burnley is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Cardiff: King E. (Knee Injury) Tanner O. (Injury)

There are questionable in Burnley: Bruun Larsen J. (Knock)

There are questionable in Cardiff: Alnwick J. (Inactive) Robertson A. (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:10. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:1. (average 2.2:0.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
20.09.25	Burnley - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Burnley - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Manchester United - Burnley	3:2 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Burnley - Derby County	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Burnley - Sunderland	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLLWW
- Cardiff City
English League One
20.09.25	Cardiff City - Bradford City	1:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
16.09.25	Exeter City - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
English League One
13.09.25	Stockport County - Cardiff City	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Cardiff City - Plymouth Argyle	4:0 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Cardiff City - Cheltenham Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
04.03.25	Cardiff City - Burnley	1:2
17.08.24	Burnley - Cardiff City	5:0
08.05.23	Burnley - Cardiff City	3:0
01.10.22	Cardiff City - Burnley	1:1
English Premier League
13.04.19	Burnley - Cardiff City	2:0
30.09.18	Cardiff City - Burnley	1:2
English League Championship
05.04.16	Burnley - Cardiff City	0:0

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