Match Info

League One - Round 25

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff)

Referee: Finnie W. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Paramount+


	Cardiff City		Wigan Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.75	5	Watch
	1.68	3.75	4.6
	1.65	3.95	4.95	Watch
	1.62	4.02	5.04	Watch
	1.67	3.6	4.8
	1.68	3.74	4.89	Watch
	1.63	3.8	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (2.05)	3.8 ↑ (3.23)	4.94 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff City
56.6%

Draw
24.5%

Wigan Athletic
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

28.4%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

28.4%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cardiff City's performance.

Wigan Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Wigan Athletic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cardiff City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wigan Athletic than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Wigan Athletic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.4%	0%	13.6%

Cardiff City - Wigan Athletic Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Cardiff (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Cardiff City will win (19 of 22 users predict this - 86.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.02% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cardiff City will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 9 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Trott N. (G) 38. Ng P. 48. Lawlor D. 12. Chambers C. (C) 3. Bagan J. 18. Robertson A. 6. Wintle R. 45. Ashford C. 8. Kellyman O. 16. Willock C. 22. Salech Y.	1. Tickle S. (G) 4. Aimson W. 23. Carragher J. (C) 3. Fox M. 21. Borges Rodrigues R. 6. Weir J. 27. Brenan T. 35. Francois T. 7. Murray F. 8. Wright C. 11. Costelloe D.
Substitutes
27. Colwill J. 39. Davies I. 2. Fish W. 44. Kpakio R. 47. Robinson C. 11. Tanner O. 14. Turnbull D.	37. Asamoah M. 43. Bettoni H. 44. Hungbo J. 20. McManaman C. 30. Savin T. (G) 9. Saydee C. 5. Sessegnon S.
Coaches
Barry-Murphy B.	Lowe R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Chambers C. ⚽, Bagan J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Brenan T. ↓, Asamoah M. ↑,
72', Kellyman O. ↓, Robinson C. ↑,
73', Ashford C. ↓, Tanner O. ↑,
82', Costelloe D. ↓, Saydee C. ↑,
84', Lawlor D. ↓, Fish W. ↑,
90+4', Wright C. ↓, Bettoni H. ↑,
90+4', Weir J. ↓, McManaman C. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Cardiff is the team to beat.

There will not play in Cardiff: Alnwick J. (Personal Reasons) Colwill R. (Injury) King E. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Wigan: Mabaya I. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Trevitt R. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Wigan: Adeeko B. (Inactive) Kerr J. (Inactive) Rogers J. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1:1.2).

Outrights of English League One for now

Wigan: 0.91%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
24	Wigan	7	1	1	5	5:12	-7	4

Last Results with these Odds

Cardiff City - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 44.82%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Wigan Athletic - the odds 3.43 are the expected chance of winning is 26.76%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff City
English League One
01.01.26	Wycombe Wanderers - Cardiff City	1:1 ✺
29.12.25	Cardiff City - Stevenage Borough	2:1 ✺
26.12.25	Cardiff City - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Lincoln City - Cardiff City	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
16.12.25	Cardiff City - Chelsea	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TWWLL
- Wigan Athletic
English League One
01.01.26	Wigan Athletic - Barnsley	1:1 ✺
29.12.25	Burton Albion - Wigan Athletic	0:2 ✺
26.12.25	Bradford City - Wigan Athletic	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Wigan Athletic - Blackpool	0:2 ✺
13.12.25	Huddersfield Town - Wigan Athletic	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
27.09.25	Wigan Athletic - Cardiff City	0:2
English League Championship
14.01.23	Cardiff City - Wigan Athletic	1:1
08.10.22	Wigan Athletic - Cardiff City	1:3
15.02.20	Cardiff City - Wigan Athletic	2:2
03.08.19	Wigan Athletic - Cardiff City	3:2
22.04.17	Wigan Athletic - Cardiff City	0:0
29.10.16	Cardiff City - Wigan Athletic	0:1

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