Match Info

League One - Round 23

Date: 29 December 2025, Monday

Location: Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff)

Referee: Breakspear C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Paramount+


	Cardiff City		Stevenage Borough

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.5	4.33
	1.78	3.55	4.25
	1.8	3.57	4.36	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.4
	1.78	3.56	4.41	Watch
	1.81	3.4	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2.05)	3.48 ↑ (3.23)	4.38 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff City
52.1%

Draw
26.7%

Stevenage Borough
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

28.4%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

28.3%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cardiff City's performance.

Stevenage Borough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stevenage Borough might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cardiff City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stevenage Borough could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
96.4%	0%	3.6%

Cardiff City - Stevenage Borough Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Cardiff (2.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Cardiff City will win (54 of 56 users predict this - 96.43%).
Confidence interval (95%): 91.57% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cardiff City will win (25 of 25 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 26 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Trott N. (G) 38. Ng P. 2. Fish W. 12. Chambers C. (C) 3. Bagan J. 14. Turnbull D. 6. Wintle R. 47. Robinson C. 39. Davies I. 16. Willock C. 22. Salech Y.	1. Marschall F. (G) 2. James-Wildin L. 15. Goode C. 5. Piergianni C. (C) 16. Freestone L. 4. Houghton J. 18. White H. 30. Lubala B. 10. Kemp D. 44. Patterson P. 19. Reid J.
Substitutes
27. Colwill J. 8. Kellyman O. 44. Kpakio R. 48. Lawlor D. 18. Robertson A. 11. Tanner O. 41. Turner M. (G)	13. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 20. Campbell C. 14. Earley S. 24. Malcolm J. 17. Pattenden J. 23. Thompson L. 22. Young J.
Coaches
Barry-Murphy B.	Revell A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
54', White H. 🟨,
57', 0 - 1, Patterson P. ⚽, Lubala B. (A),
60', Ng P. ↓, Kpakio R. ↑,
60', Davies I. ↓, Kellyman O. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Robinson C. ⚽,
69', Patterson P. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
69', Lubala B. ↓, Malcolm J. ↑,
69', Kemp D. ↓, Thompson L. ↑,
77', Houghton J. ↓, Pattenden J. ↑,
82', 2 - 1, Salech Y. ⚽, Willock C. (A),
83', Willock C. ↓, Tanner O. ↑,
83', Reid J. ↓, Young J. ↑,
83', Turnbull D. ↓, Robertson A. ↑,
86', Robinson C. ↓, Colwill J. ↑,
90+3', Thompson L. 🟨,
90+4', Colwill J. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Cardiff may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cardiff is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Cardiff: Alnwick J. (Personal Reasons) Colwill R. (Injury) King E. (Knee Injury) Osho G. (Injury)

There will not play in Stevenage: Simpson T. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Cardiff: Trott N. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cardiff won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff City
English League One
26.12.25	Cardiff City - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Lincoln City - Cardiff City	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
16.12.25	Cardiff City - Chelsea	1:3 ✺
English League One
13.12.25	Cardiff City - Doncaster Rovers	4:3 ✺
09.12.25	Stevenage Borough - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLWW
- Stevenage Borough
English League One
26.12.25	AFC Wimbledon - Stevenage Borough	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Stevenage Borough - Burton Albion	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Stockport County - Stevenage Borough	1:3 ✺
09.12.25	Stevenage Borough - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Stevenage Borough - Walsall	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
09.12.25	Stevenage Borough - Cardiff City	0:1

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