Match Info

EFL Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff)

Referee: Harrington T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Cardiff City		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	6.25	5	1.42	Watch
	6.4	5.4	1.43
	6.78	5.2	1.45
	6.43	5.2	1.46	Watch
	6	4.6	1.44
	6.7	5.09	1.46	Watch
	6.33	4.5	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.41 ↓ (13.67)	5 ↓ (6.73)	1.45 ↑ (1.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff City
14.9%

Draw
19.1%

Chelsea
66%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

6.9%

14.1%

79%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cardiff City's performance.

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chelsea might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.8%	7.9%	76.3%

Cardiff City - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Cardiff will win (votes: 6 - 16.7%). Chelsea will win (votes: 28 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 64.2% – 91.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Cardiff (1.88) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Chelsea (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Chelsea (1.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Chelsea (1.13) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -2.5 - Chelsea (3.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chelsea will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Chelsea (votes: 18 - 81.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Trott N. (G) 38. Ng P. 48. Lawlor D. 12. Chambers C. (C) 3. Bagan J. 6. Wintle R. 14. Turnbull D. 27. Colwill J. 39. Davies I. 45. Ashford C. 47. Robinson C.	12. Jorgensen F. (G) 34. Acheampong J. 4. Adarabioyo T. 5. Badiashile B. 21. Hato J. 25. Caicedo M. (C) 17. Andrey Santos 32. George T. 40. Buonanotte F. 11. Gittens J. 38. Guiu M.
Substitutes
31. Donczew A. 2. Fish W. 49. Giles L. 28. Mafico D. 29. Nyakuhwa T. 18. Robertson A. 22. Salech Y. 41. Turner M. (G) 16. Willock C.	23. Chalobah T. 8. Fernandez E. 29. Fofana W. 49. Garnacho A. 27. Gusto M. 24. James R. 20. Joao Pedro 7. Neto P. 1. Sanchez R. (G)
Coaches
Barry-Murphy B.	Maresca E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Davies I. 🟨,
27', Chambers C. 🟨,
45', Caicedo M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Guiu M. ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
46', George T. ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
56', Robinson C. ↓, Salech Y. ↑,
56', Davies I. ↓, Willock C. ↑,
57', 0 - 1, Garnacho A. ⚽, Buonanotte F. (A),
66', Buonanotte F. ↓, Gusto M. ↑,
66', Gittens J. ↓, Neto P. ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Turnbull D. ⚽, Ng P. (A),
80', Colwill J. ↓, Robertson A. ↑,
82', 1 - 2, Neto P. ⚽, Andrey Santos (A),
84', Acheampong J. ↓, Chalobah T. ↑,
90', Ng P. ↓, Fish W. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 3, Garnacho A. ⚽, Joao Pedro (A),

Preview

Cardiff is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Chelsea has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Cardiff has had a series of home games.

In this match, Chelsea is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Cardiff: Alnwick J. (Hamstring Injury) Colwill R. (Injury) King E. (Knee Injury) Osho G. (Injury)

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Delap L. (Shoulder Injury) Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Lavia R. (Thigh Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Cardiff: Tanner O. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:12. (average 1:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff City
English League One
13.12.25	Cardiff City - Doncaster Rovers	4:3 ✺
09.12.25	Stevenage Borough - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	Cardiff City - Huddersfield Town	3:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Cardiff City - AFC Wimbledon	1:5 ✺
English League One
29.11.25	Cardiff City - Mansfield Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWLW
- Chelsea
English Premier League
13.12.25	Chelsea - Everton	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Atalanta - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
06.12.25	Bournemouth - Chelsea	0:0 ✺
03.12.25	Leeds United - Chelsea	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Chelsea - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
31.03.19	Cardiff City - Chelsea	1:2
15.09.18	Chelsea - Cardiff City	4:1
11.05.14	Cardiff City - Chelsea	1:2
19.10.13	Chelsea - Cardiff City	4:1

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