Match Info

Cymru South - Round 9

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday


	Cardiff Draconians		Caerau Ely

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.75	1.82
	3.24	4.03	1.87
	3.46	3.98	1.89	Watch
	3.2	3.95	1.85
	3.34	4.06	1.91
	3.25	3.85	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↓ (3.33)	3.94 ↑ (3.88)	1.86 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Draconians
27.7%

Draw
23.2%

Caerau Ely
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.2%

23.3%

49.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

22.9%

50.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Draconians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Caerau Ely has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff Draconians than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Cardiff Draconians - Caerau Ely Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Harling L. ⚽,
9', Bishop L. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', 0 - 2, Harling L. ⚽,
89', 0 - 3, Bahumaid J. ⚽,
90+4', 1 - 3, Cawley S. (Penalty Awarded),
90+6', Indjai C. 🟥,

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 13th and 8th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Caerau could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Caerau holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Cardiff Draconians has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:3 (averaging 0.5:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cardiff Draconians against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21:18	3	16
13	Cardiff Draconians	7	2	2	3	9:12	-3	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Draconians
Welsh Cymru South
12.09.26	Cardiff Draconians - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Cardiff Draconians - Llanelli	4:2 ✺
15.08.26	Cardiff Draconians - Pontypridd United	1:4 ✺
07.08.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Cardiff Draconians	0:0 ✺
01.08.26	Ynyshir Albions - Cardiff Draconians	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWLTL
- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
11.09.26	Caerau Ely - Llanelli	2:0 ✺
31.08.26	Caerau Ely - Treowen Stars	3:2 ✺
28.08.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerau Ely	3:1 ✺
21.08.26	Caerau Ely - Pure Swansea	1:5 ✺
14.08.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Caerau Ely	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
02.01.26	Caerau Ely - Cardiff Draconians	2:1
16.08.25	Cardiff Draconians - Caerau Ely	0:1

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