Match Info

Cymru South - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday


	Cardiff Draconians		Cwmbran Celtic

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.85	6.3
	1.35	5.07	6.78
	2.60	3.31	2.58	Watch
	1.33	4.75	7.36
	1.34	4.7	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.33)	4.54 ↓ (4.98)	5.84 ↓ (6.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Draconians
61.6%

Draw
21.6%

Cwmbran Celtic
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.1%

18.2%

13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.6%

17.1%

12.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Draconians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cardiff Draconians's form might have worsened.

Cwmbran Celtic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff Draconians than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cardiff Draconians, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cwmbran Celtic than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Cardiff Draconians - Cwmbran Celtic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Gibson J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
58', 1 - 1, Roberts S. ⚽,
78', 2 - 1, Roberts S. ⚽,
83', Larcombe A. 🟥,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Cardiff Draconians is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Cwmbran Celtic's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Cwmbran Celtic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Cardiff Draconians has had a series of away games.

In this match, Cardiff Draconians is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that Cardiff Draconians will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Draconians
Welsh Cymru South
27.09.25	Llantwit Major - Cardiff Draconians	0:2 ✺
16.09.25	Afan Lido - Cardiff Draconians	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Cardiff Draconians	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	Cardiff Draconians - Aberystwyth Town	3:1 ✺
22.08.25	Pontypridd United - Cardiff Draconians	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.5 WWTWW
- Cwmbran Celtic
Welsh Cymru South
26.09.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Aberystwyth Town - Cwmbran Celtic	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Treowen Stars - Cwmbran Celtic	2:2 ✺
25.08.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Newport City	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	Trefelin - Cwmbran Celtic	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TLTTL

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