Match Info

WALES: Cymru Premier - Round 14

Date: 25 October 2024, Friday

Location: Cyncoed Campus (Cardiff)

Referee: Jones A. (Wal)


	Cardiff Metropolitan		Newtown

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	2.75
	2.25	3.4	2.9
	2.24	3.5	2.91
	2.26	3.51	2.96	Watch
	2.2	3.4	2.88
	2.23	3.48	2.89
	2.25	3.4	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.01)	3.43 ↓ (3.58)	2.88 ↓ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Metropolitan
41.2%

Draw
26.9%

Newtown
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

25.8%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

25.4%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Metropolitan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Newtown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff Metropolitan than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cardiff Metropolitan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newtown than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Cardiff Metropolitan - Newtown Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Cardiff Metropolitan will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Newtown will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lang A. (G) 2. Chubb M. 19. Clay J. 3. Edwards J. 7. Evans E. 8. Kabongo D. 14. Morris J. 9. Rees L. 6. Reynolds R. 11. Roscrow A. 4. Veale J.	13. Ussher S. (G) 8. Evans R. 20. Harries J. 24. Hughes G. 11. Ismail Z. 10. Lock J. 26. Pryce R. 3. Roberts C. 27. Smith D. 6. Sutton S. 14. Williams A.
Substitutes
24. Bullock C. 17. Cadwallader E. 18. Gibbins C. J. 15. Morgan G. 23. Roberts B. 41. Saunders 20. Williams J.	17. Boakye H. 33. Hollinshead T. 32. Roberts A. 22. Smith C. 34. Smout I. 1. Swindell A. (G)
Coaches
Jenkins R.	Ruscoe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Hughes G. (Own goal),
8', 1 - 1, Smith D. ⚽,
16', Veale J. 🟥,
27', Kabongo D. 🟨,
35', Roscrow A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 2 - 1, Evans E. ⚽,
51', Lang A. 🟨,
62', Hughes G. ↓, Hollinshead T. ↑,
70', Morris J. ↓, Roberts B. ↑,
80', Roscrow A. ↓, Morgan G. ↑,
80', Pryce R. ↓, Boakye H. ↑,
82', Morgan G. 🟨,
85', Smith D. 🟨,
89', Morgan G. 🟥,
90+3', Reynolds R. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 8 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cardiff Metropolitan won 1.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Newtown could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Cardiff Metropolitan won 9 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 25:27 (average 1.3:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Cardiff Metropolitan won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 15:11 (average 1.5:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Metropolitan University FC
Welsh League Cup
21.10.24	Cardiff City U21 - Cardiff Metropolitan	3:2 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
18.10.24	Pen-y-Bont - Cardiff Metropolitan	0:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
15.10.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Pen-y-Bont	1:1 ✺
12.10.24	The New Saints - Cardiff Metropolitan	3:0 ✺
05.10.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Caernarfon Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LWTLL
- Newtown AFC
Welsh Cymru Premier
15.10.24	Newtown - Barry Town United	2:4 ✺
12.10.24	Caernarfon Town - Newtown	1:2 ✺
04.10.24	Newtown - Flint Town United	2:4 ✺
27.09.24	Newtown - The New Saints	1:6 ✺
24.09.24	Gap Connahs Quay - Newtown	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
13.09.24	Newtown - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:1
21.04.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Newtown	1:3
09.03.24	Newtown - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:0
17.10.23	Cardiff Metropolitan - Newtown	2:1
01.09.23	Newtown - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:1
15.04.23	Newtown - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:2
10.03.23	Cardiff Metropolitan - Newtown	0:0

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