Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 11

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Bryntirion Park (Bridgend)

Referee: Walker J. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Wales	Cymru Football TV


	Pen-y-Bont		Airbus UK Broughton

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.50	3.60
	1.82	3.45	3.75
	1.75	4.16	3.7
	1.82	4.36	3.51	Watch
	1.62	4.05	2.95
	1.88	3.48	3.48	Watch
	1.83	3.5	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.58)	3.79 ↑ (3.73)	3.53 ↓ (4.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pen-y-Bont
50.6%

Draw
23.9%

Airbus UK Broughton
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

24.3%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

23.1%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pen-y-Bont has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pen-y-Bont's form might have worsened.

Airbus UK Broughton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Airbus UK Broughton's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pen-y-Bont, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Airbus UK Broughton than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Airbus UK Broughton, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Pen y Bont - Airbus UK Broughton Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pen-y-Bont (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Pen-y-Bont will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Higgs D. (G) 21. Baker A. 24. Barrow D. 6. Davies M. 19. Hill R. 17. Jefferies D. 32. Shephard L. 33. Vaughan E. 9. Venables C. 23. Walker T. 7. Wood N.	1. Fallon L. (G) 7. Blackwell-Jones M. 18. Calland O. 10. Cooke K. 8. Evans J. 22. Moscrop S. 11. Peers G. 6. Rickett S. 17. Roberts J. 4. Stevenson J. 23. Williams N.
Substitutes
10. Cann E. 5. Debono A. 20. Manga M. 55. Mashlan J. 25. Pennock A. (G) 14. Phillips I. 8. Pritchard O.	61. Clement J. (G) 12. Diau B. 3. Evans K. 14. Hughes J. 19. Lancely O. 9. Parry J. 16. Smith E.
Coaches
Griffiths R.	Allen M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Shephard L. (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', 1 - 1, Hill R. ⚽,
61', Baker A. ↓, Pritchard O. ↑,
68', Barrow D. ↓, Cann E. ↑,
71', Vaughan E. 🟨,
72', Roberts J. ↓, Parry J. ↑,
74', Hill R. ↓, Manga M. ↑,
76', Manga M. 🟨,
79', 2 - 1, Cann E. ⚽,
84', Blackwell-Jones M. ↓, Hughes J. ↑,
90+1', Parry J. 🟨,
90+1', Pritchard O. 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 2nd in the Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 8th in the Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Conference League Group: )).

Pen-y-Bont arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Airbus UK Broughton have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Pen-y-Bont holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Pen-y-Bont has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:2 (averaging 2:0.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pen-y-Bont against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 5:1 goals (averaging 2.5:0.5 per game).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Penybont: 7.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22:10	12	27
8	Airbus	12	6	0	6	21:17	4	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.09.26	Ammanford - Pen-y-Bont	1:5 ✺
15.09.26	Pen-y-Bont - Briton Ferry Llansawel	3:2 ✺
11.09.26	Trefelin - Pen-y-Bont	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Cambrian United - Pen-y-Bont	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWWT
- Airbus UK Broughton
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.09.26	Airbus UK Broughton - Flint Town United	4:1 ✺
15.09.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Airbus UK Broughton	3:0 ✺
11.09.26	Airbus UK Broughton - The New Saints	0:2 ✺
04.09.26	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Airbus UK Broughton	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Airbus UK Broughton - Holywell Town	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
03.01.23	Pen-y-Bont - Airbus UK Broughton	2:0
15.10.22	Airbus UK Broughton - Pen-y-Bont	0:3
09.11.19	Airbus UK Broughton - Pen-y-Bont	1:2
21.09.19	Pen-y-Bont - Airbus UK Broughton	3:1

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