Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 13

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Cyncoed Campus (Cardiff) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Pratt N. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Wales	19:45	Cymru Football TV


	Cardiff Metropolitan		Trefelin

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.40	6.00
	1.42	4.40	5.90
	1.53	4.45	6.54
	1.38	5	7	Watch
	1.51	3.85	6.45
	1.53	4.34	5.42	Watch
	1.42	4.50	5.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.31)	4.42 ↓ (5.04)	6.16 ↓ (7.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Metropolitan
63.9%

Draw
21%

Trefelin
15.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

69.9%

18.1%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.9%

17.1%

11.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Metropolitan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cardiff Metropolitan's form might have worsened.

Trefelin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff Metropolitan than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cardiff Metropolitan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trefelin than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Cardiff Metropolitan - Trefelin Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Davies A. (G) 8. Craven C. 14. Dymond-Hall S. 3. Edwards J. 23. Hooper J. 29. Matthews H. 16. McKenzie M. 33. Raison T. 36. Snaith S. 4. Veale J. 24. Wildig A.	1. Coughlan S. (G) 20. Aman B. 10. Brock T. 4. Caramella-Gerrard L. 7. Georgievsky K. 3. Horgan-Evans D. 14. Jones J. 19. Jones J. 26. Owen K. 2. Thomas M. 11. Ware L.
Substitutes
5. Clarke J. 12. Gaughan B. 13. Howard W. (G) 20. John H. 18. Lloyd T. 6. Reynolds R.	35. Davies O. 21. Jones H. (G) 15. Parker K. 32. Parkhouse L. 17. Phillips L. 16. Piper R. 12. Saunders C.
Coaches
Jenkins R.	Hill A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Ware L. (Penalty Awarded),
31', 0 - 2, Jones J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Brock T. ↓, Piper R. ↑,
62', 1 - 2, Hooper J. ⚽,
66', Hooper J. ↓, Clarke J. ↑,
79', 1 - 3, Piper R. ⚽,
80', Matthews H. ↓, Reynolds R. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 7th in the Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group: ) and 15th in the Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: )).

In recent outings, Cardiff Metropolitan has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Trefelin is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Cardiff Metropolitan may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cardiff Metropolitan enters as the overwhelming favorite.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Cardiff Metropolitan	14	6	4	4	26:18	8	22
15	Trefelin	14	1	3	10	8:33	-25	6

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Trefelin: 0.81%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Metropolitan University FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
03.10.26	Llandudno - Cardiff Metropolitan	0:1 ✺
29.09.26	Cardiff Metropolitan - Haverfordwest County	1:0 ✺
26.09.26	Cardiff Metropolitan - Caernarfon Town	2:2 ✺
18.09.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:0 ✺
11.09.26	Flint Town United - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWTLT
- Trefelin BGC
Welsh Cymru Premier
03.10.26	Airbus UK Broughton - Trefelin	3:0 ✺
26.09.26	Trefelin - The New Saints	1:3 ✺
18.09.26	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Trefelin	1:1 ✺
15.09.26	Trefelin - Cambrian United	0:4 ✺
11.09.26	Trefelin - Pen-y-Bont	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLTLL

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