Match Info

National League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Carlisle United		Boreham Wood

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.6	2.4
	2.25	3.5	2.55
	2.35	3.65	2.62	Watch
	2.36	3.8	2.77
	2.38	3.74	2.59	Watch
	2.3	3.4	2.7
	2.36	3.52	2.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.38)	3.6 ↑ (3.52)	2.62 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
39.1%

Draw
25.6%

Boreham Wood
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

26.4%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

26.5%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Boreham Wood has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boreham Wood than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Carlisle United - Boreham Wood Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Boreham Wood will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carlisle: 64.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Breeze G. (G) 22. Williams J. 5. Feeney M. (C) 6. Hayden A. 12. Galvin R. 37. Macadam H. 8. Whelan C. 7. Ajiboye D. 16. Wearne S. 10. Linney R. 29. Armstrong L.	22. Curd T. (G) 15. Clarke J. 6. O'Connell C. 5. Bush Ch. 3. Ilesanmi F. 19. White T. (C) 23. Booty R. 11. Ayinde L. 8. Brunt Z. 10. Abdulmalik A. 32. Rush M.
Substitutes
38. Conn-Clarke C. 18. Ellis J. 9. Kelly G. 11. Luamba J. 13. Mair A. (G) 26. Mugabi B. 25. Yeboah E.	1. Ashmore N. (G) 2. Coxe C. 14. Henry A. 26. Landers J. 16. Reynolds C. 20. Richardson L. 7. Sousa E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Abdulmalik A. ⚽, Booty R. (A),
37', Galvin R. 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Feeney M. ⚽, Ajiboye D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Ayinde L. 🟨,
68', Booty R. 🟨,
70', Booty R. ↓, Reynolds C. ↑,
79', Whelan C. ↓, Conn-Clarke C. ↑,
79', Armstrong L. ↓, Kelly G. ↑,
79', Ajiboye D. ↓, Luamba J. ↑,
82', Ayinde L. ↓, Richardson L. ↑,
90+1', White T. 🟨,
90+4', Hayden A. 🟨,
90+4', Bush Ch. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
96', Luamba J. 🟥,
100', Macadam H. ↓, Ellis J. ↑,
104', Wearne S. ↓, Yeboah E. ↑,
106', 1 - 2, Brunt Z. ⚽, Richardson L. (A),
111', Brunt Z. ↓, Landers J. ↑,
113', Galvin R. ↓, Mugabi B. ↑,
116', Abdulmalik A. ↓, Coxe C. ↑,
120+2', O'Connell C. 🟨,
120+3', Feeney M. 🟨,

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Carlisle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlisle won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 2.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	13	11	2	0	34:13	21	35
14	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	23:20	3	17

Last Results with these Odds

Boreham Wood - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.63%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English National League
25.04.26	Carlisle United - Brackley Town	3:0 ✺
18.04.26	Truro City - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Carlisle United - Sutton United	3:0 ✺
06.04.26	Morecambe - Carlisle United	2:2 ✺
03.04.26	Carlisle United - Gateshead	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWWTT
- Boreham Wood
English National League
29.04.26	Boreham Wood - Forest Green Rovers	1:0 ET ✺
25.04.26	Boreham Wood - Sutton United	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Morecambe - Boreham Wood	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Boreham Wood - Hartlepool United	3:0 ✺
06.04.26	Solihull Moors - Boreham Wood	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
21.12.25	Boreham Wood - Carlisle United	2:0
16.08.25	Carlisle United - Boreham Wood	3:3
English FA Cup
19.11.13	Carlisle United - Boreham Wood	2:1
09.11.13	Boreham Wood - Carlisle United	0:0

Carlisle United - Boreham Wood: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide