Match Info

National League - Round 44

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Albania	16:00	DAZN
Argentina	11:00	DAZN
Australia	00:00	DAZN
Austria	16:00	DAZN
Belarus	17:00	DAZN
Bolivia	10:00	DAZN
Brazil	11:00	DAZN Brasil
Bulgaria	17:00	DAZN
Canada	10:00	DAZN Canada
Colombia	09:00	DAZN
Croatia	16:00	DAZN
Cyprus	17:00	DAZN
Czech Republic	16:00	DAZN
Denmark	16:00	DAZN
Ecuador	09:00	DAZN
Finland	17:00	DAZN
France	16:00	DAZN France
Germany	16:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	17:00	DAZN
Hong Kong	22:00	DAZN
Hungary	16:00	DAZN
India	19:30	DAZN
Indonesia	21:00	DAZN
Kazakhstan	20:00	DAZN
Latvia	17:00	DAZN
Lithuania	17:00	DAZN
Malaysia	22:00	DAZN
Mexico	08:00	DAZN
New Zealand	02:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	15:00	DAZN
North Macedonia	16:00	DAZN
Norway	16:00	DAZN
Paraguay	10:00	DAZN
Philippines	22:00	DAZN
Poland	16:00	DAZN
Portugal	15:00	DAZN / App
Romania	17:00	DAZN
Russia	17:00	DAZN
Serbia	16:00	DAZN
Slovenia	16:00	DAZN
South Africa	16:00	DAZN
South Korea	23:00	DAZN
Spain	16:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	16:00	DAZN
Switzerland	16:00	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	22:00	DAZN
Thailand	21:00	DAZN
Ukraine	17:00	DAZN
United Arab Emirates	18:00	DAZN
United Kingdom	15:00	DAZN
Uruguay	11:00	DAZN
Uzbekistan	19:00	DAZN
Venezuela	10:00	DAZN
Vietnam	21:00	DAZN


	Carlisle United		Sutton United

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.1	5
	1.58	4.15	4.75
	1.6	4.33	4.98
	1.63	4.22	4.57	Watch
	1.6	3.9	4.75
	1.59	4.14	5.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.68)	4.14 ↑ (3.97)	4.85 ↑ (4.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
58.3%

Draw
22.5%

Sutton United
19.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.3%

23.4%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

21.8%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Sutton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sutton United than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Carlisle United - Sutton United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Breeze G. (G) 18. Ellis J. 5. Feeney M. (C) 4. Thomas T. 12. Galvin R. 37. Macadam H. 8. Whelan C. 7. Ajiboye D. 16. Wearne S. 10. Linney R. 9. Kelly G.	1. Sims J. (G) 50. Donkor K. 26. Eccleston J. 23. Harris J. J. 39. Topalloj B. 42. Muller H. 25. Taylor J. (C) 40. Ruiz R. 48. Francis J. 8. Simper L. 34. Njoku B.
Substitutes
2. Davies A. 3. Harper C. 13. Mair A. (G) 26. Mugabi B. 22. Williams J. 23. Wyke Ch. 25. Yeboah E.	51. Byron T. 47. Eze D. 13. Haigh Ch. (G) 18. Ogbonna D. 14. Pruti E. 9. Rodari D. 36. Urpens D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
8', Simper L. 🟨,
10', 1 - 0, Macadam H. ⚽, Kelly G. (A),
23', 2 - 0, Macadam H. ⚽, Whelan C. (A),
28', Taylor J. 🟨,
41', 3 - 0, Galvin R. ⚽, Linney R. (A),
44', Ruiz R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Whelan C. 🟨,
61', Francis J. ↓, Ogbonna D. ↑,
63', Ajiboye D. 🟨,
63', Donkor K. ↓, Urpens D. ↑,
65', Urpens D. 🟨,
74', Harris J. J. 🟨,
77', Ajiboye D. ↓, Yeboah E. ↑,
77', Whelan C. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
78', Kelly G. ↓, Wyke Ch. ↑,
83', Topalloj B. ↓, Byron T. ↑,
85', Linney R. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
85', Galvin R. ↓, Harper C. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 17).

Carlisle is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sutton is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Carlisle is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Carlisle will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:10. (average 0.6:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlisle won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Carlisle	15	6	5	4	28:21	7	23
12	Sutton	15	6	3	6	17:21	-4	21

Outrights of English National League for now

Carlisle: 2.48% Sutton: 0.72%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English National League
06.04.26	Morecambe - Carlisle United	2:2 ✺
03.04.26	Carlisle United - Gateshead	0:0 ✺
28.03.26	Braintree Town - Carlisle United	1:2 ✺
24.03.26	Halifax Town - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Carlisle United - Boston United	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TTWWW
- Sutton United
English National League
06.04.26	Sutton United - Southend United	0:3 ✺
03.04.26	Aldershot Town - Sutton United	2:2 ✺
28.03.26	Sutton United - Rochdale	1:2 ✺
24.03.26	Eastleigh - Sutton United	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Sutton United - Truro City	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
30.08.25	Sutton United - Carlisle United	2:1
English League Two
08.05.23	Sutton United - Carlisle United	1:1
03.12.22	Carlisle United - Sutton United	1:1
29.01.22	Carlisle United - Sutton United	0:2
25.09.21	Sutton United - Carlisle United	4:0

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