Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 15

Date: 24 October 2023, Tuesday


	Carlisle United		Burton Albion

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.2	2.9
	2.45	3.2	2.85
	2.5	3.3	2.8	Watch
	2.54	3.3	2.95
	2.55	3.3	2.95
	2.4	3.3	2.88
	2.43	3.3	2.88	Watch
	2.43	3.2	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.37)	3.26 ↑ (3.23)	2.89 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
38.2%

Draw
29%

Burton Albion
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

29%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

29.6%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	8.3%	66.7%

Carlisle United - Burton Albion Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Burton will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burton: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Holy T. (G) 2. Back F. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 22. Mellish J. 3. Armer J. 8. Guy C. 4. Moxon O. 11. Butterworth D. 24. Maguire S. 14. Garner J. 7. Gibson J.	1. Crocombe M. (G) 37. Hamer T. 12. Moon J. 6. Sweeney R. 3. Seddon S. 7. Powell J. 24. Baah K. 4. Oshilaja A. (C) 21. Carayol M. 17. Helm M. 15. Lubala B.
Substitutes
12. Ablade T. 25. Andresson J. (G) 26. Barclay B. 9. Edmondson R. 27. Plange L. 19. Robinson J. 17. Whelan C.	30. Blackman J. (G) 22. Caprice J. 25. Gilligan C. 10. Gordon J. 8. Harper R. 9. Stockton C. 14. Walker J.
Coaches
Simpson P.	Maamria D.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 20 and 9).

Carlisle is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Burton in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Burton could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League One
21.10.23	Portsmouth - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
14.10.23	Carlisle United - Leyton Orient	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.10.23	Carlisle United - Nottingham Forest U21	0:2 ✺
English League One
07.10.23	Bolton Wanderers - Carlisle United	1:3 ✺
03.10.23	Carlisle United - Peterborough United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LLLWT
- Burton Albion
English League One
21.10.23	Burton Albion - Bristol Rovers	4:1 ✺
14.10.23	Lincoln City - Burton Albion	0:1 ✺
09.10.23	Burton Albion - Cambridge United	2:1 ✺
03.10.23	Burton Albion - Wigan Athletic	2:1 ✺
30.09.23	Reading - Burton Albion	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.3 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
15.04.15	Burton Albion - Carlisle United	1:1
21.10.14	Carlisle United - Burton Albion	3:4

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