Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 13

Date: 14 October 2023, Saturday


	Carlisle United		Leyton Orient

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.63
	2.55	3.2	2.7
	2.7	3.3	2.6	Watch
	2.77	3.29	2.71
	2.6	3.25	2.7
	2.64	3.32	2.63	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.35)	3.26 ↑ (3.25)	2.65 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
35.5%

Draw
29%

Leyton Orient
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

29%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

30.6%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Leyton Orient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carlisle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leyton Orient than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leyton Orient, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	6.2%	68.7%

Carlisle United - Leyton Orient Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 4 - 25%). Leyton Orient will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leyton Orient: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Holy T. (G) 2. Back F. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 22. Mellish J. 3. Armer J. 4. Moxon O. 8. Guy C. 10. McCalmont A. 7. Gibson J. 14. Garner J. 24. Maguire S.	1. Brynn S. (G) 32. Hunt R. 12. Cooper B. 5. Happe D. 4. Turns E. 22. Galbraith E. 8. Brown J. 10. Sotiriou R. 15. El Mizouni I. (C) 11. Archibald T. 9. Pigott J.
Substitutes
12. Ablade T. 25. Andresson J. (G) 26. Barclay B. 9. Edmondson R. 27. Plange L. 19. Robinson J. 17. Whelan C.	16. Drinan A. 17. Forde S. 24. Graham J. 13. Howes S. (G) 2. James T. 14. Moncur G. 3. Sweeney J.
Coaches
Simpson P.	Wellens R.

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 and 16).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 2.

Carlisle is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Leyton Orient is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Leyton Orient could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Leyton Orient have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 19-32.

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9-18.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English EFL Trophy
10.10.23	Carlisle United - Nottingham Forest U21	0:2 ✺
English League One
07.10.23	Bolton Wanderers - Carlisle United	1:3 ✺
03.10.23	Carlisle United - Peterborough United	1:1 ✺
30.09.23	Wycombe Wanderers - Carlisle United	2:0 ✺
23.09.23	Carlisle United - Derby County	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LWTLL
- Leyton Orient
English League One
07.10.23	Leyton Orient - Reading	2:1 ✺
30.09.23	Fleetwood Town - Leyton Orient	1:0 ✺
23.09.23	Leyton Orient - Shrewsbury Town	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
19.09.23	Leyton Orient - Fulham U21	3:2 penalties ✺
English League One
16.09.23	Peterborough United - Leyton Orient	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
01.04.23	Leyton Orient - Carlisle United	1:0
22.10.22	Carlisle United - Leyton Orient	2:3
26.02.22	Leyton Orient - Carlisle United	0:1
21.08.21	Carlisle United - Leyton Orient	1:1
01.05.21	Leyton Orient - Carlisle United	2:3
23.03.21	Carlisle United - Leyton Orient	0:1
26.10.19	Leyton Orient - Carlisle United	1:1

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