Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 14

Date: 21 October 2023, Saturday


	Portsmouth		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.5	7.5
	1.4	4.75	7
	1.4	4.75	7.5	Watch
	1.42	4.85	7.79
	1.42	4.86	7.79
	1.4	4.5	7.5
	1.4	4.7	7.4	Watch
	1.4	4.6	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.58)	4.69 ↑ (3.98)	7.46 ↑ (5.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
67.2%

Draw
20.1%

Carlisle United
12.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

23.5%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.7%

22.6%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portsmouth's performance.

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Portsmouth that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.8%	0%	4.2%

Portsmouth - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: Portsmouth will win (23 of 24 users predict this - 95.83%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Norris W. (G) 17. Rafferty J. 5. Poole R. 18. Shaughnessy C. 21. Sparkes J. 16. Morrell J. (C) 8. Robertson A. 32. Lane P. 28. Anjorin F. 25. Kamara A. 9. Bishop C.	1. Holy T. (G) 2. Back F. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 22. Mellish J. 3. Armer J. 10. McCalmont A. 8. Guy C. 4. Moxon O. 24. Maguire S. 14. Garner J. 7. Gibson J.
Substitutes
24. Devlin T. 6. Ogilvie C. 20. Raggett S. 15. Saydee C. 31. Schofield R. (G) 14. Stevenson B. 19. Yengi K.	12. Ablade T. 26. Barclay B. 13. Breeze G. (G) 11. Butterworth D. 9. Edmondson R. 27. Plange L. 19. Robinson J.
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Simpson P.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 20).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 2.

Portsmouth in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Carlisle is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Carlisle could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Portsmouth have a series of home games.

In this match Portsmouth is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Portsmouth to win the game is with odds 1.49.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 15-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Portsmouth won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English EFL Trophy
10.10.23	Portsmouth - Gillingham	5:1 ✺
English League One
07.10.23	Portsmouth - Port Vale	2:0 ✺
03.10.23	Portsmouth - Wycombe Wanderers	2:1 ✺
30.09.23	Wigan Athletic - Portsmouth	1:2 ✺
23.09.23	Portsmouth - Lincoln City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWWW
- Carlisle United
English League One
14.10.23	Carlisle United - Leyton Orient	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.10.23	Carlisle United - Nottingham Forest U21	0:2 ✺
English League One
07.10.23	Bolton Wanderers - Carlisle United	1:3 ✺
03.10.23	Carlisle United - Peterborough United	1:1 ✺
30.09.23	Wycombe Wanderers - Carlisle United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
25.02.17	Carlisle United - Portsmouth	0:3
06.08.16	Portsmouth - Carlisle United	1:1
02.04.16	Portsmouth - Carlisle United	1:0
21.11.15	Carlisle United - Portsmouth	2:2
03.04.15	Carlisle United - Portsmouth	2:2
01.11.14	Portsmouth - Carlisle United	3:0
English League One
16.02.13	Portsmouth - Carlisle United	1:1

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