Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 12

Date: 7 October 2023, Saturday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Stockbridge S. (Eng)


	Bolton Wanderers		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5.75
	1.55	4.1	5.5
	1.57	4.2	5.5	Watch
	1.6	4.17	5.85
	1.53	4.2	5.8
	1.57	4.1	5.5	Watch
	1.53	4.2	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.59)	4.14 ↑ (4.12)	5.64 ↑ (5.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
60.4%

Draw
22.9%

Carlisle United
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

22.7%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

21.9%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	9.1%	9.1%

Bolton Wanderers - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: Bolton Wanderers will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baxter N. (G) 15. Forrester W. 18. Toal E. 3. Iredale J. 4. Thomason G. 12. Cogley J. 8. Sheehan J. 22. Dempsey K. 27. Williams R. 10. Charles D. 14. Adeboyejo V.	1. Holy T. (G) 2. Back F. 5. Lavelle S. 22. Mellish J. 3. Armer J. 10. McCalmont A. 8. Guy C. 4. Moxon O. 24. Maguire S. 14. Garner J. 7. Gibson J.
Substitutes
26. Ashworth Z. 9. Bodvarsson J. 13. Coleman J. (G) 35. Jerome C. 41. Matheson L. 16. Morley A. 11. N'Lundulu D.	12. Ablade T. 25. Andresson J. (G) 9. Edmondson R. 16. Harris J. J. 27. Plange L. 19. Robinson J. 17. Whelan C.
Coaches
Evatt I.	Simpson P.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 20).

Bolton is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Carlisle is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Bolton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Bolton is indisputable favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Bolton won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Bolton won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
03.10.23	Bolton Wanderers - Stevenage Borough	3:2 ✺
30.09.23	Port Vale - Bolton Wanderers	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
26.09.23	Bolton Wanderers - Manchester United U21	8:1 ✺
English League One
23.09.23	Bolton Wanderers - Peterborough United	1:1 ✺
16.09.23	Reading - Bolton Wanderers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWTL
- Carlisle United
English League One
03.10.23	Carlisle United - Peterborough United	1:1 ✺
30.09.23	Wycombe Wanderers - Carlisle United	2:0 ✺
23.09.23	Carlisle United - Derby County	0:2 ✺
16.09.23	Lincoln City - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
09.09.23	Stevenage Borough - Carlisle United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
16.07.22	Carlisle United - Bolton Wanderers	3:1
English League Two
20.04.21	Bolton Wanderers - Carlisle United	1:0
26.12.20	Carlisle United - Bolton Wanderers	3:3
Club Friendly
23.07.13	Carlisle United - Bolton Wanderers	1:0

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