Match Info

League One - Round 28

Date: 22 January 2026, Thursday

Location: LNER stadium (Lincoln)

Referee: Corlett M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lincoln City		Burton Albion

	1	X	2
	1.46	4.1	6.25	Watch
	1.57	3.9	5.5
	1.55	4.15	5.4	Watch
	1.5	4.17	6.28	Watch
	1.5	3.8	6
	1.5	4.1	6.26	Watch
	1.54	4	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.58)	4.03 ↑ (3.83)	5.96 ↑ (5.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lincoln City
61.3%

Draw
23.1%

Burton Albion
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

24%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

22.2%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lincoln City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Burton Albion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	5.6%	27.8%

Lincoln City - Burton Albion Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Lincoln will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Burton will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lincoln: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Lincoln (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Burton (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Lincoln (1.88) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Burton (2.37) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Lincoln (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Lincoln (votes: 6 - 50%). Burton (votes: 6 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wickens G. (G) 2. Darikwa T. (C) 22. Hamer T. 15. Bradley S. 3. Reach A. 24. Varfolomeev I. 14. McGrandles C. 7. Hackett-Fairchild R. 34. Draper F. 10. Moylan J. 17. Street R.	24. Collins B. (G) 2. Godwin-Malife U. (C) 5. Vancooten T. 6. Sibbick T. 15. Lofthouse K. 4. Chauke K. 19. Williams D. 3. Armer J. 29. Adom K. 22. Larsson J. 9. Beesley J.
Substitutes
13. Jeacock Z. (G) 16. Jefferies D. 9. Lloyd A. 4. Montsma L. 37. Okewoye G. 12. Ring E. 6. Towler R.	14. Akoto N. 27. Dudek K. (G) 37. Kalinauskas T. 41. Krubally S. 23. Revan S. 56. Scutt Z. 11. Tavares F.
Coaches
Skubala M.	Bowyer G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
35', 1 - 0, Moylan J. ⚽, Draper F. (A),
37', 1 - 1, Beesley J. ⚽, Armer J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', 2 - 1, Moylan J. ⚽,
70', Larsson J. ↓, Revan S. ↑,
78', Moylan J. ↓, Jefferies D. ↑,
78', Hackett-Fairchild R. ↓, Towler R. ↑,
80', Adom K. ↓, Tavares F. ↑,
84', Street R. ↓, Lloyd A. ↑,
85', Hamer T. 🟨,
88', Sibbick T. ↓, Kalinauskas T. ↑,
89', Lloyd A. 🟨,
90', Darikwa T. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 19).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lincoln won 4.

Lincoln is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Burton has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Lincoln may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lincoln is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Lincoln: Bayliss T. (Inactive) Collins J. (Knee Injury) House B. (Inactive) Jackson A. (Surgery) Thorn O. (Inactive)

There will not play in Burton: Delap F. (Inactive) Jones J. (Foot Injury) Sraha J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Burton: Hartridge A. (Inactive) Webster C. (Injury)

We predict that Lincoln will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Lincoln won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:14. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lincoln won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Burton	10	3	3	4	14:16	-2	12

Last Results with these Odds

Burton Albion - the odds 5.17 are the expected chance of winning is 17.78%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lincoln City
English League One
17.01.26	Luton Town - Lincoln City	2:2 ✺
04.01.26	Lincoln City - Peterborough United	5:2 ✺
01.01.26	Lincoln City - Huddersfield Town	1:1 ✺
29.12.25	Barnsley - Lincoln City	0:2 ✺
26.12.25	Stockport County - Lincoln City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 TWTWW
- Burton Albion
English League One
17.01.26	Burton Albion - Huddersfield Town	3:1 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Boreham Wood - Burton Albion	0:5 ✺
English League One
04.01.26	Plymouth Argyle - Burton Albion	3:0 ✺
01.01.26	Reading - Burton Albion	2:0 ✺
29.12.25	Burton Albion - Wigan Athletic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
13.09.25	Burton Albion - Lincoln City	0:1
English League Cup
26.08.25	Burton Albion - Lincoln City	0:1
English League One
22.02.25	Lincoln City - Burton Albion	0:1
10.08.24	Burton Albion - Lincoln City	2:3
03.02.24	Burton Albion - Lincoln City	0:1
14.10.23	Lincoln City - Burton Albion	0:1
25.04.23	Lincoln City - Burton Albion	0:1

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