Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 9

Date: 23 September 2023, Saturday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Coy M. (Eng)


	Carlisle United		Derby County

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.5	2.15
	3.4	3.5	2.1	Watch
	3.53	3.43	2.18
	3.25	3.2	1.95
	3.3	3.44	2.14	Watch
	3.25	3.45	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↓ (3.75)	3.42 ↓ (3.64)	2.11 ↑ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
28.1%

Draw
27.5%

Derby County
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

25.8%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.8%

25.6%

49.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derby County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	9.1%	63.6%

Carlisle United - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Derby will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Andresson J. (G) 2. Back F. 5. Lavelle S. 6. Huntington P. 22. Mellish J. 3. Armer J. (C) 4. Moxon O. 8. Guy C. 7. Gibson J. 24. Maguire S. 27. Plange L.	1. Wildsmith J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. (C) 3. Forsyth C. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 12. Smith K. 22. Fornah T. 17. Sibley L. 10. Waghorn M. 9. Collins J.
Substitutes
12. Ablade T. 9. Edmondson R. 14. Garner J. 1. Holy T. (G) 10. McCalmont A. 19. Robinson J. 17. Whelan C.	7. Barkhuizen T. 5. Bradley S. 20. Elder C. 13. Loach S. (G) 26. Robinson D. 14. Washington C. 2. Wilson K.
Coaches
Simpson P.	Warne P.

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 18 and 12).

Recent matches Carlisle is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Derby is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Derby could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Carlisle have a series of guest games.

Derby will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League One
16.09.23	Lincoln City - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
09.09.23	Stevenage Borough - Carlisle United	2:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
05.09.23	Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
English League One
02.09.23	Carlisle United - Shrewsbury Town	2:0 ✺
26.08.23	Port Vale - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TTLWL
- Derby County
English EFL Trophy
19.09.23	Derby County - Lincoln City	2:0 ✺
English League One
16.09.23	Derby County - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
02.09.23	Bolton Wanderers - Derby County	2:1 ✺
26.08.23	Peterborough United - Derby County	2:4 ✺
19.08.23	Derby County - Fleetwood Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
23.08.16	Derby County - Carlisle United	2:1 penalties
11.08.14	Carlisle United - Derby County	0:2

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