Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - PLAY OFFS - FINAL

Date: 28 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Wembley Stadium (London)

Referee: Nield T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Carlisle United		Stockport County

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.2	2.38	Watch
	3.1	3	2.35
	3.15	3	2.5
	3.25	3.07	2.5
	2.88	2.9	2.3
	3.18	3.02	2.43	Watch
	3.05	3.05	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↑ (2.81)	3.03 ↓ (3.31)	2.4 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
30.2%

Draw
30.8%

Stockport County
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

28.4%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

28.3%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Stockport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stockport County than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

Carlisle United - Stockport County Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Stockport will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Holy T. (G) 17. Whelan C. 6. Huntington P. (C) 22. Mellish J. 2. Senior J. 4. Moxon O. 8. Guy C. 35. McCalmont A. 3. Armer J. 36. Gordon J. 41. Garner J.	1. Hinchliffe B. (G) 4. Wright A. 6. Horsfall F. 23. Hussey C. 3. Knoyle K. 8. Camps C. 18. Croasdale R. 10. Sarcevic A. 17. Rydel R. 20. Olaofe I. 9. Madden P. (C)
Substitutes
15. Charters T. 14. Dennis K. 9. Edmondson R. 7. Gibson J. 30. Kelly M. (G) 10. Patrick O. 33. Robinson J.	5. Byrne N. 14. Collar W. 21. Hippolyte M. 25. Jaros V. (G) 7. Lemonheigh-Evans C. 31. Lewis J. 16. Stretton J.
Coaches
Simpson P.	Challinor D.

Preview

Neutral location - Wembley Stadium.

Carlisle has the most likely position - 5 (100%), project points - 76, currently - 76, not chance of relegated, already of prom. playoffs, a chance of promoted (43%), not chance of win league.

Stockport has the most likely position - 4 (100%), project points - 79, currently - 79, not chance of relegated, already of prom. playoffs, a good chance of promoted (57%), not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 15, very big importance 100, match rating 58. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Carlisle is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Stockport is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Carlisle could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League Two
20.05.23	Carlisle United - Bradford City	3:1 ✺
14.05.23	Bradford City - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
08.05.23	Sutton United - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
29.04.23	Carlisle United - Salford City	2:3 ✺
22.04.23	Barrow - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLTLW
- Stockport County
English League Two
20.05.23	Stockport County - Salford City	3:1 penalties ✺
13.05.23	Salford City - Stockport County	1:0 ✺
08.05.23	Stockport County - Hartlepool United	1:1 ✺
29.04.23	Leyton Orient - Stockport County	0:3 ✺
22.04.23	Stockport County - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
18.04.23	Carlisle United - Stockport County	2:2
25.10.22	Stockport County - Carlisle United	2:0

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