Match Info

ENGLAND: League Two - Round 27

Date: 18 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Speedie B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Carlisle United		Bradford City

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
				Watch
	3.3	3.25	2.25
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↓ (3.4)	3.25 ↓ (3.37)	2.25 ↑ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
28.7%

Draw
29.2%

Bradford City
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

27.9%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.5%

27.8%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Bradford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bradford City than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Carlisle United - Bradford City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Breeze G. (G) 26. Barclay B. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 22. McArthur C. 11. Jones J. 42. Patching W. 43. Whelan C. 39. Wearne S. 40. Harris K. 17. Hugill J. 44. Embleton E.	1. Walker S. (G) 15. Baldwin A. 24. Shepherd J. 18. Kelly C. 2. Halliday B. 6. Smallwood R. (C) 16. Pattison A. 3. Richards L. 10. Sarcevic A. 8. Kavanagh C. 23. Pointon B.
Substitutes
25. Dudik A. 18. Ellis J. 45. Fusire S. 3. Harper C. 6. Hayden A. 1. Lewis H. (G) 20. Scott C.	13. Doyle C. (G) 22. Johnson C. 11. Khela B. 32. Lapslie G. 37. Leigh T. 26. Mellon M. 17. Wright T.
Coaches
Williamson M.	Alexander G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', McArthur C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', 0 - 1, Kavanagh C. ⚽, Pattison A. (A),
69', Barclay B. ↓, Ellis J. ↑,
70', Patching W. ↓, Fusire S. ↑,
70', Wearne S. ↓, Scott C. ↑,
75', Embleton E. ↓, Harper C. ↑,
76', Sarcevic A. 🟨,
82', Baldwin A. ↓, Johnson C. ↑,
87', Richards L. 🟨,
90', Kavanagh C. ↓, Leigh T. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 2.

Carlisle is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Bradford in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Carlisle could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Bradford will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 7 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 14:16 (average 0.9:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11:2 (average 1.6:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Carlisle United - the odds 3.4 are the expected chance of winning is 27.64%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League Two
04.01.25	Tranmere Rovers - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
01.01.25	Crewe Alexandra - Carlisle United	3:2 ✺
29.12.24	Carlisle United - Accrington Stanley	2:1 ✺
26.12.24	Carlisle United - Morecambe	0:1 ✺
21.12.24	Port Vale - Carlisle United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWLT
- Bradford City
English EFL Trophy
14.01.25	Aston Villa U21 - Bradford City	1:3 ✺
English League Two
04.01.25	Bradford City - Grimsby Town	3:1 ✺
01.01.25	Barrow - Bradford City	2:2 ✺
29.12.24	Bradford City - Chesterfield	2:1 ✺
26.12.24	Bradford City - Port Vale	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
07.09.24	Bradford City - Carlisle United	2:1
20.05.23	Carlisle United - Bradford City	3:1
14.05.23	Bradford City - Carlisle United	1:0
21.03.23	Bradford City - Carlisle United	0:0
26.12.22	Carlisle United - Bradford City	1:0
07.05.22	Bradford City - Carlisle United	2:0
08.01.22	Carlisle United - Bradford City	2:0

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