Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 11

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Sandro Cabassi (Carpi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253


	Carpi		Gubbio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.28	2.92	3.25
	2.31	2.9	3.46
	2.70	3.10	2.61	Watch
	2.23	2.92	3.25	Watch
	2.62	3.14	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.65)	3 ↓ (3.05)	3.04 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carpi
38.3%

Draw
31.1%

Gubbio
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

29.9%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

28.3%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carpi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Gubbio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gubbio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carpi than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gubbio than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Carpi - Gubbio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sorzi M. (G) 70. Arcopinto A. 7. Cecotti T. 72. Cortesi M. (C) 5. Figoli M. 6. Panelli T. 3. Rigo M. 29. Rosetti M. 19. Rossini M. 10. Stanzani L. 4. Zagnoni D.	1. Bagnolini N. (G) 23. Bruscagin M. 21. Carraro F. 5. Di Bitonto A. 82. Djankpata H. 44. Hraiech S. 19. La Mantia A. 77. Minta A. 15. Signorini A. (C) 3. Tentardini A. 34. Zallu F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Carraro F. ⚽,
10', Rosetti M. 🟨,
14', 0 - 2, La Mantia A. ⚽,
25', Zagnoni D. 🟥,
26', Di Bitonto A. ↓, Fazzi N. ↑,
42', Panelli T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rosetti M. ↓, Amayah P. ↑,
46', Rigo M. ↓, Tcheuna R. ↑,
46', Arcopinto A. ↓, Mahrani Y. ↑,
46', Panelli T. ↓, Lombardi L. ↑,
54', Lombardi L. 🟨,
67', 0 - 3, Djankpata H. ⚽,
70', La Mantia A. ↓, Ghirardello T. ↑,
71', Signorini A. ↓, Baroncelli L. ↑,
71', Tentardini A. ↓, Podda L. ↑,
74', Podda L. 🟨,
83', Djankpata H. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
83', Cecotti T. ↓, Pitti E. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 13).

Carpi has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gubbio has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carpi won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Carpi won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carpi FC
Italian Serie C Group B
20.10.25	Carpi - Ascoli	1:1 ✺
10.10.25	Bra - Carpi	1:3 ✺
05.10.25	Carpi - Perugia	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Arezzo - Carpi	3:1 ✺
23.09.25	Carpi - Ravenna	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TWWLL
- AS Gubbio 1910
Italian Serie C Group B
18.10.25	Gubbio - Guidonia Montecelio	0:2 ✺
10.10.25	Arezzo - Gubbio	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Gubbio - Pontedera	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Vis Pesaro - Gubbio	1:1 ✺
23.09.25	Campobasso - Gubbio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
29.03.25	Carpi - Gubbio	0:2
17.11.24	Gubbio - Carpi	1:0
03.04.21	Gubbio - Carpi	0:4
13.12.20	Carpi - Gubbio	2:2
13.10.19	Gubbio - Carpi	1:2

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