Match Info

Serie B - Round 16

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio dei Marmi (Carrara)

Referee: Caputi M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Carrarese		Virtus Entella

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.18	3	3.4	Watch
	2.21	3.15	3.91
	2.29	3.07	3.33	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.3
	2.27	2.99	3.43	Watch
	2.14	3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.49)	3.04 ↓ (3.23)	3.53 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carrarese
42.6%

Draw
30.8%

Virtus Entella
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

28.9%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

28%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carrarese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carrarese's performance.

Virtus Entella has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Virtus Entella might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carrarese than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Virtus Entella than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Virtus Entella could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	23.5%	11.8%

Carrarese - Virtus Entella Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Carrarese will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Virtus Entella will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carrarese: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Carrarese (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bleve M. (G) 26. Ruggeri F. 4. Illanes J. 3. Imperiale M. 18. Schiavi N. 72. Zanon S. 70. Hasa L. 21. Rubino T. 11. Cicconi M. 32. Finotto M. 9. Abiuso F.	1. Colombi S. (G) 90. Portanova D. 42. Moretti L. 15. Marconi I. 7. Bariti D. 50. Benali A. 27. Dalla Vecchia M. 26. Di Mario S. 8. Karic N. 21. Russo F. 20. Fumagalli T.
Substitutes
7. Belloni N. 13. Bouah D. 10. Bozhanaj K. 37. Calabrese N. 28. Di Stefano F. 99. Fiorillo V. (G) 8. Melegoni F. 6. Oliana F. 77. Parlanti G. 44. Sekulov N. 92. Torregrossa E. 17. Zuelli E.	45. Ankeye D. 81. Bottaro A. 19. Debenedetti A. 22. Del Frate F. (G) 24. Franzoni A. 11. Guiu B. 5. Lipani J. 94. Mezzoni F. 4. Nichetti M. 2. Palomba L. 99. Siaulys O. (G) 6. Tiritiello A.
Coaches
Calabro A.	Chiappella A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Hasa L. ↓, Zuelli E. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Rubino T. ↓, Di Stefano F. ↑,
52', Marconi I. 🟨,
56', 1 - 0, Schiavi N. ⚽,
57', Di Mario S. 🟨,
59', Portanova D. 🟨,
63', Russo F. ↓, Debenedetti A. ↑,
63', Karic N. ↓, Guiu B. ↑,
70', 2 - 0, Ruggeri F. ⚽, Abiuso F. (A),
73', 3 - 0, Abiuso F. ⚽, Zuelli E. (A),
74', Fumagalli T. ↓, Nichetti M. ↑,
74', Dalla Vecchia M. ↓, Franzoni A. ↑,
74', Marconi I. ↓, Tiritiello A. ↑,
75', 3 - 1, Debenedetti A. ⚽, Franzoni A. (A),
83', Abiuso F. ↓, Melegoni F. ↑,
83', Zanon S. ↓, Bouah D. ↑,
86', Illanes J. 🟨,
90', Schiavi N. ↓, Parlanti G. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carrarese won 2.

Recent form of Carrarese has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Virtus Entella's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Carrarese: Salamon B. (Inactive)

There will not play in Virtus Entella: Del Lungo T. (Inactive) Parodi L. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Virtus Entella: Franzoni A. (Inactive) Tiritiello A. (Inactive)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Carrarese won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:22. (average 1.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Carrarese won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Carrarese - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.5%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carrarese Calcio
Italian Serie B
07.12.25	Sampdoria - Carrarese	3:2 ✺
29.11.25	Palermo - Carrarese	5:0 ✺
22.11.25	Carrarese - Reggiana	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Carrarese	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Carrarese - Frosinone	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTTL
- Virtus Entella
Italian Serie B
08.12.25	Virtus Entella - Spezia	0:1 ✺
29.11.25	Catanzaro - Virtus Entella	3:2 ✺
22.11.25	Virtus Entella - Palermo	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Reggiana - Virtus Entella	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Virtus Entella - Empoli	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
28.07.24	Virtus Entella - Carrarese	0:0
Italian Serie C Group B
10.02.24	Virtus Entella - Carrarese	1:3
30.09.23	Carrarese - Virtus Entella	2:0
22.01.23	Virtus Entella - Carrarese	4:0
Coppa Italia Serie C
05.10.22	Virtus Entella - Carrarese	2:1 penalties
Italian Serie C Group B
18.09.22	Carrarese - Virtus Entella	3:1
07.03.22	Virtus Entella - Carrarese	3:0

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