Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 28

Date: 10 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Loughview Leisure Arena (Carrickfergus)

Referee: Morrison C. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	Onefootball


	Carrick Rangers		Glenavon

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.75	4.25
	1.7	4.1	4.42
	1.57	4.23	4.69	Watch
	1.67	3.9	4.4
	1.65	3.84	4.31
	1.64	4	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.62)	3.97 ↑ (3.89)	4.4 ↓ (4.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carrick Rangers
55.8%

Draw
23.3%

Glenavon
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

23.7%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.1%

22.4%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carrick Rangers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Glenavon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carrick Rangers than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Glenavon than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Carrick Rangers - Glenavon Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Carrick Rangers (votes: 2 - 50%). Glenavon (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Carrick Rangers will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Pengelly S. (G) 15. Buchanan-Rolleston B. 4. Burns B. 19. Crowe J. 22. Heatley P. 10. Lecky A. 12. McCullough L. (C) 2. Place M. 9. Purkis D. 24. Snoddy M. 14. Steele A.	1. Carney J. (G) 3. Burns P. 10. Campbell P. 18. Ferris N. 23. Gilmore G. 29. McGovern P. 6. McKeown B. (C) 2. McMullan J. 32. Mountney J. 4. Murphy H. 31. Quinn N.
Substitutes
20. Cherry K. 33. Donnelly L. (G) 23. Glendinning R. 35. Jeffers R. 29. McCawl E. 40. Moore J. 34. Olosunde M.	27. Carlin S. 5. Cartwright L. 28. Falls C. 24. Harkin M. 30. Lindsay C. 17. Lowe K. 36. McGerrigan L.
Coaches
Baxter S.	O'Connor M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Heatley P. ⚽,
35', 2 - 0, McCullough L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Quinn N. 🟥,
76', 2 - 1, Campbell P. ⚽,
87', Pengelly S. ↓, Donnelly L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carrick Rangers won 1.

Carrick Rangers is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Glenavon has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Glenavon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Glenavon has had a series of home games.

In this match, Carrick Rangers is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Carrick Rangers will win today's game, with odds of 1.76.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Carrick Rangers won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 25:38. (average 1.3:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Carrick Rangers won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:22. (average 1.1:2.2).

Outrights of Northern Irish Premiership for now

Carrick Rangers: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Carrick Rangers	10	4	1	5	15:15	0	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carrick Rangers
Northern Irish Cup
07.02.26	Carrick Rangers - Coleraine	1:4 ET ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
03.02.26	Carrick Rangers - Bangor	3:2 ✺
31.01.26	Portadown - Carrick Rangers	0:3 ✺
24.01.26	Carrick Rangers - Dungannon Swifts	5:1 ✺
17.01.26	Cliftonville - Carrick Rangers	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 LWWWW
- Glenavon FC
Northern Irish Premiership
31.01.26	Glenavon - Cliftonville	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	Coleraine - Glenavon	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Glenavon - Glentoran	1:2 ✺
Northern Irish Cup
13.01.26	Glenavon - Newington	4:2 ET ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
30.12.25	Glenavon - Dungannon Swifts	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
18.10.25	Glenavon - Carrick Rangers	1:0
16.08.25	Carrick Rangers - Glenavon	1:0
26.04.25	Carrick Rangers - Glenavon	0:4
25.01.25	Glenavon - Carrick Rangers	2:1
26.10.24	Glenavon - Carrick Rangers	1:1
10.08.24	Carrick Rangers - Glenavon	2:0
27.04.24	Glenavon - Carrick Rangers	1:2

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