Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 26

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Loughview Leisure Arena (Carrickfergus)

Referee: McMaster B. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Carrick Rangers		Dungannon Swifts

	1	X	2
	2.28	3.45	2.72
	2.36	3.49	2.94
	2.26	3.51	2.77	Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.8
	2.34	3.46	2.85
	2.28	3.33	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.62)	3.42 ↑ (3.28)	2.82 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carrick Rangers
40.2%

Draw
27%

Dungannon Swifts
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

27.8%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

27.3%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carrick Rangers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carrick Rangers's performance.

Dungannon Swifts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carrick Rangers than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carrick Rangers that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dungannon Swifts than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dungannon Swifts could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Carrick Rangers - Dungannon Swifts Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Pengelly S. (G) 15. Buchanan-Rolleston B. 4. Burns B. 6. Callacher J. 19. Crowe J. 9. Gibson D. 22. Heatley P. 10. Lecky A. 12. McCullough L. (C) 2. Place M. 24. Snoddy M.	1. Dunne D. (G) 7. Bermingham B. 10. Dillon K. 16. Gordon S. 6. Kelly T. 4. Maguire P. 5. Marron C. 26. Mitchell A. 40. Ogedi-Uzokwe J. 20. Smith M. 23. Wallace D.
Substitutes
20. Cherry K. 33. Donnelly L. (G) 35. Jeffers R. 29. McCawl E. 25. McKay R. 40. Moore J. 14. Steele A.	13. Alves L. 28. Hawe D. 12. Henderson A. (G) 8. Knowles J. 35. Liggett E. 37. Smith C.
Coaches
Baxter S.	McAree R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
6', Maguire P. 🟨,
9', 1 - 0, Crowe J. ⚽,
14', 2 - 0, Heatley P. ⚽,
17', Gibson D. 🟨,
21', Burns B. 🟨,
25', 3 - 0, Lecky A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
63', Kelly T. 🟨,
65', 4 - 0, Lecky A. ⚽,
81', 4 - 1, Liggett E. ⚽,
83', 5 - 1, Lecky A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carrick Rangers won 1.

In recent matches, Carrick Rangers has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Dungannon is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Dungannon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Carrick Rangers won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 30:33. (average 1.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Carrick Rangers won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.6:1.2).

Outrights of Northern Irish Premiership for now

Carrick Rangers: 0.84% Dungannon: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Carrick Rangers	10	4	1	5	15:15	0	13
7	Dungannon	9	4	1	4	9:10	-1	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carrick Rangers
Northern Irish Premiership
17.01.26	Cliftonville - Carrick Rangers	1:4 ✺
13.01.26	Carrick Rangers - Linfield	0:0 ✺
Northern Irish Cup
10.01.26	Carrick Rangers - Queens University Belfast	5:1 ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
03.01.26	Carrick Rangers - Glentoran	0:7 ✺
30.12.25	Crusaders - Carrick Rangers	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WTWLT
- Dungannon Swifts
Northern Irish Premiership
17.01.26	Dungannon Swifts - Ballymena United	2:0 ✺
Northern Irish Cup
10.01.26	Dungannon Swifts - Ards	3:0 ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
03.01.26	Crusaders - Dungannon Swifts	2:0 ✺
30.12.25	Glenavon - Dungannon Swifts	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Dungannon Swifts - Bangor	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
13.12.25	Carrick Rangers - Dungannon Swifts	3:3
23.08.25	Dungannon Swifts - Carrick Rangers	0:2
Northern Irish Cup
01.03.25	Carrick Rangers - Dungannon Swifts	1:3
Northern Irish Premiership
15.02.25	Dungannon Swifts - Carrick Rangers	3:1
23.11.24	Carrick Rangers - Dungannon Swifts	0:1
28.09.24	Dungannon Swifts - Carrick Rangers	4:0
06.04.24	Dungannon Swifts - Carrick Rangers	3:2

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