Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 5

Date: 7 October 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova (Cartagena)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	DAZN Espana, Footballclub


	Cartagena		Real Murcia

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.1
	2.25	3.00	2.90
	2.42	3	2.8
	2.31	3.2	3.05
	2.8	3.12	2.55	Watch
	2.2	3	2.95
	2.44	2.92	2.73
	2.35	3.05	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.43)	3.05 ↑ (2.85)	2.87 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cartagena
38.5%

Draw
29.8%

Real Murcia
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

31.3%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

31%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Real Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cartagena than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Cartagena - Real Murcia Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Cartagena will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Murcia will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Garcia L. (G) 2. Jurado M. 24. Lohr L. 5. Baz I. 19. Corral A. 8. De Blasis P. (C) 6. Claveria P. 14. Villa T. 10. Ribeiro I. 17. Dacosta R. 16. Moreno M.	13. Jimenez D. (G) 2. Mier J. 4. Perez H. 6. Gonzalez A. (C) 3. Romero C. 14. Joao Pedro Palmberg 15. Gil O. 8. Mier J. 17. Moreno Sanchez J. 23. Bosilj D. 19. Jorquera Romero J.
Substitutes
31. Abellan I. 15. Jules J. 3. Kelo G. 22. Martinez N. 7. Mohamed A. 18. Perejon D. 11. Ramirez B. 1. Reyes J. (G) 9. Ribeiro 20. Richarte R. 4. Serrano R.	11. Bustos A. 21. Errahaly M. 20. Gimenez A. 26. Gimenez Sanchez E. 40. Meca A. 10. Nunez C. 1. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 5. Rojas J. 28. Rubira Riquelme R. 24. Sanchez J. G. 27. Yoldi A.
Coaches
Velez I.	Guillo S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
76', Moreno Sanchez J. ↓, Bustos A. ↑,
76', Bosilj D. ↓, Gimenez A. ↑,
82', Claveria P. 🟨,
83', Claveria P. ↓, Jules J. ↑,
83', Moreno M. ↓, Ribeiro ↑,
83', Jorquera Romero J. ↓, Meca A. ↑,
83', Joao Pedro Palmberg ↓, Nunez C. ↑,
87', Dacosta R. ↓, Martinez N. ↑,
87', Villa T. ↓, Richarte R. ↑,
90+7', Jurado M. ↓, Perejon D. ↑,
90+9', 1 - 0, Baz I. ⚽, De Blasis P. (A),
90+15', Perez H. ↓, Errahaly M. ↑,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 10th and 4th in the Promotion - Primera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cartagena won 3.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Cartagena could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Cartagena has recorded 6 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:19 (averaging 1.2:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cartagena against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 11:8 goals (averaging 1.6:1.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Murcia	6	4	0	2	10:7	3	12
5	FC Cartagena SAD	6	3	2	1	9:4	5	11

Last Results with these Odds

Real Murcia - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 31.9%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cartagena
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.10.26	Cartagena - Águilas	4:1 ✺
20.09.26	Zaragoza - Cartagena	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Rayo Majadahonda - Cartagena	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Cartagena - Gimnástic de Tarragona	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Algeciras - Cartagena	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLTTW
- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
04.10.26	Real Murcia - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
30.09.26	Navalcarnero - Real Murcia	3:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
19.09.26	Real Murcia - CE Europa	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
16.09.26	Orihuela - Real Murcia	1:4 AET ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
13.09.26	Atlético Madrid B - Real Murcia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
22.02.26	Real Murcia - Cartagena	1:2
08.12.25	Cartagena - Real Murcia	0:1
Club Friendly
05.08.23	Cartagena - Real Murcia	3:1
10.08.21	Cartagena - Real Murcia	2:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
08.12.19	Real Murcia - Cartagena	2:0
07.04.19	Cartagena - Real Murcia	1:1
18.11.18	Real Murcia - Cartagena	1:2

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